Yankees vs. Orioles prediction and odds for Sunday, July 30 (Judge is Back)

New York isn't getting much from Luis Severino this year, so they'll need to get a lot from Aaron Judge to have a chance against the Orioles today.
 New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99)
New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Judge is back in the lineup and it appears that having the reigning American League MVP back in the lineup is a little helpful. The last place, 55-49 New York Yankees beat the first place 63-41 Baltimore Orioles 8-3 yesterday behind a three hit day that included a home run from Judge yesterday. 

That win sets up the rubber match tonight at Camden Yards. The pitching matchup for this one will feature Luis Severino against Dean Kremer. Severino has struggled for the Yankees to the tune of a 2-4 record with a 6.46 ERA. Kremer on the other hand is 10-4 for Baltimore despite his 4.59 ERA. 

The division leaders are the favorites tonight in this AL East matchup. The top team and the last place Yankees are only separated by eight games in the toughest division in baseball. 

Yankees vs. Orioles odds, run line and total

Yankees vs. Orioles prediction and pick

It has been very tough sledding for Severino in his 11 starts this season including seven runs on 10 hits in 2.2 innings against Baltimore on July 6. That was the worst performance of his shaky season and now he’ll have to face the same lineup, but on the road this time. He’ll likely struggle and the New York bullpen might not be able to pick him up.  

The Yankees came into July with the best bullpen in baseball by a fairly wide margin in terms of ERA, but this month they are 16th with a 4.48 ERA. That’s a steep drop off from their 2.82 ERA prior to July 1. Things have fallen apart on the back end, so now the Yankees will need to score to keep pace with Baltimore and suddenly they can. Aaron Judge fixes a lot about the New York lineup and despite its obvious flaws, the Yankees are capable of throwing punches with the young hitters in Baltimore. 

For as bad as Severino has been, Dean Kremer can be worse. He has a 5.39 expected ERA which falls into the bottom 10% of all pitchers which is also where his expected slugging percentage of .490 is. He faced New York earlier this month and allowed just two runs over seven innings with 10 strikeouts, but that was without No. 99 in the lineup. It’ll be a lot tougher for Kremer in this one, so I’ll take the over. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change