Yankees' bleak bullpen situation could be getting a boost, but it may not be enough
There's upside to be had, but will these Yankees relievers capitalize?
When Aaron Boone took the ball from Gerrit Cole after 5.1 innings of one run, 10-strikeout ball against the Texas Rangers, the vibes were good in Yankeeland. The Bombers' ace had just twirled arguably his best start of his up-and-down 2024 season, and with late-inning stalwart Luke Weaver coming in with the Yankees tied with the Rangers, a win looked pretty probable.
Unfortunately, it didn't take long for the excitement to fade. Weaver, who came into play with an impressive 2.81 ERA, .190 opponent batting average, and 70 strikeouts in 64 innings, allowed three straight singles to the Rangers 6-8 hitters, before walking the No. 9 hitter for the go-ahead run. He'd face two more batters, allowing a sac fly and a homer, before being pulled with the Rangers leading by a whopping five runs.
Weaver's blow-up that Saturday afternoon is a microcosm of the struggles of the Yankee bullpen as a whole over the past few weeks. As the season has worn on, a combination of injuries and rotation ineffectiveness has stretched Weaver, Clay Holmes, and the rest of the warm bodies in the 'pen to their limits, resulting in some infuriating blown games.
Through June 1, the Yankees were second in bullpen ERA only to Cleveland, fourth in ground ball rate, and third in opponent batting average. Since then, they've taken a huge step back, ranking 25th in ERA and 20th in opponents' batting average while being relied upon for the 11th most innings out of any major league team. The stalwarts are getting tired, and the replacements aren't carrying their weight. A change is very clearly needed, but who will provide it?
When the Yankees traded for Scott Effross before the 2022 trade deadline, it looked like he would be a fixture in the back end of the bullpen for years to come. In his rookie campaign with the Cubs, he had dominated both right-handed and left-handed batters, pairing his low-90s sinker with a wipeout slider-changeup package that generated strikeouts at an excellent 28.1% clip, and a ton of ground balls as well.
Effross pitched 12 2/3 innings during the 2022 stretch run in New York, posting a 2.13 ERA and a groundball rate just above 41% before landing on the IL with elbow issues. A Tommy John surgery and a back injury/surgery later, and Effross hasn't been seen in the Bronx since that 2022 run. Now, however, he is fully healthy and pitching with Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre, albeit to not much success. He's got a 4.58 ERA through 17 2/3 innings with a lower strikeout rate and higher HR/9, but the velocity and movement of his sinker, slider and changeup are all similar to his 2022 breakout campaign. Give Effross some time to fully recover, and he could be an option down this year's stretch run.
Speaking of guys acquired at the 2022 deadline, the more successful addition from the infamous Frankie Montas trade is nearing a return as well. Lou Trivino underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2023, and signed a one-year deal with a team option to remain with the Yankees after being non-tendered last winter. He, too, is now healthy, and as of this writing is on his rehab assignment with Double-A Somerset.
With his sinker-slider mix, Trivino became a trusted high-leverage arm in 2022, especially with runners on base. He induced grounders at a 51.7% clip over 21 2/3 innings in New York, and left a whopping 83.9% of runners on base. We don't know how his sinker will look post-TJ, but he could be a much-needed weapon for a Yanks bullpen that has struggled to escape jams lately.
Aside from those two, the Yankees have an interesting trio of 40-man arms ready and waiting in Triple-A if the need arises. We've seen Nick Burdi, Ron Marinaccio, and Clayton Beeter this year in roles that were limited either due to injuries, roster crunches, or a combination of both.
Burdi showed some electric stuff coming out of Spring Training, and put it on display in seven appearances before landing on the injured list for a month. He came back in mid-May and and appeared in five more games, but landed on the injured list yet again and hasn't been seen since May 23.
Like Effross, Burdi has been activated from the IL but is toiling in Scranton, waiting for a call up. His high-90s fastball still looks great, and along with his hard slider he should be able to generate swing-and-miss for a bullpen that has desperately needed it over the past few months.
Marinaccio has been riding the Scranton Shuttle all season, coming up and going down as the Yankees have battled injuries and doubleheaders, but in his time with the big league club he has shown improvement from years past. Control had always been his biggest issue, and he's managed to bring his walk rate down from a concerning 13.2% in 2023 to an about average 10.3% this season. He may not be the high-leverage arm that he was thought to be as a prospect, but with just one option remaining, he could eat innings for the Yanks down the stretch.
After losing out on the fifth starter job to Luis Gil in Spring Training, Beeter ended up making the roster as a reliever, throwing just three pitches in his lone inning of work on opening weekend in Houston before being sent down. He pitched extremely well in Scranton, registering a 2.53 ERA over seven starts with 44 strikeouts in 32 innings before going down with a shoulder injury that has kept him out since May 15.
It seems unlikely that Beeter would make it back in time to be a serious option for the Yankees in 2024, but he hasn't been ruled out just yet. Assuming he won't be built back up as a starter, the team could seek to use him out of the 'pen if his shoulder heals in time.
Of course, the options for the Yankees bullpen don't, and likely won't, end with these five guys. There are others on the 40-man who could snag a job, as could Ian Hamilton and Cody Poteet if and when they return from their long-term injuries.
No one is a guaranteed fix. There are no dominant, proven arms waiting in the wings to save the late innings from absolute mayhem. But if a few little things go right for a couple of these new-ish faces, they could provide the Yankees' bullpen with at least some temporary improvement as the squad looks toward October.