The New York Yankees have gotten exactly what they needed with three games against the Kansas City Royals this weekend. They’ve pulled back to even with the Red Sox for fourth in the AL East at 52-47 by taking the first two games and ended their four-game losing streak. Today, they’ll face a starting pitcher who has only led his team to a win once in 18 tries this season.
Jordan Lyles will take the mound for the 28-72 Royals and Kansas City is 1-17 in his previous starts this year. Lyles is 1-11 with a 6.05 ERA. New York will counter Lyles with Luis Severino who is 1-4 in 10 starts for the Yankees with a 6.66 ERA.
The Yankees are big favorites as they go for the sweep today in the Bronx. Let’s take a look at the odds.
Royals vs. Yankees odds, run line and total
Royals vs. Yankees prediction and pick
It’s been a rough go for Severino this year since returning from another injury and the Yankees desperately need him to turn things around. Though it’s not a certainty that he will. Last time out was a good start for Severino, but he has just 40 strikeouts in 48 innings this year and with only a 13th percentile whiff rate he’s not missing enough bats to be successful. For reference, in his best years his whiff rate was 11% greater on his slider and 7% greater on his fastball.
I don’t have a lot of faith in Severino, but I have even less in the Kansas City offense. The Royals are 27th in team OPS this month and that’s an improvement from 28th for the season. They’re consistently bad and may not be the team to punish Severino. Severino’s counterpart, Jordan Lyles has actually been very good recently despite an awful season.
Lyles has a 5.33 FIP which is better than Severino’s 6.33 and Lyles has only allowed one earned run across his last 11 innings. He was due for some regression in the positive direction and it has shown up in July.
While KC is 27th in team OPS this month, the Yankees are 22nd. It’s rare that the under is the best bet in a game with two pitchers that carry ERA’s north of six, but that’s the play in this one. Betting against Lyles when his team is 1-17 with him on the mound isn’t a bad play either, but I think there’s much more value with the under.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change