Revisiting Juan Soto trade (which was massive win for Yankees), but questions remain

With 37 jacks, 95 RBI, and a .291/.421/.590 slash line, good for an OPS of 1.011 — 80% better than league average — it’s clear that Juan Soto has been all New York Yankees fans could've asked for after general manager Brian Cashman traded for him coming out of baseball’s winter meetings last December.

Soto has accumulated a 7.3 bWAR in pinstripes, and it’s still August. Yankee fans have been treated to 25 instances in which both Soto and Aaron Judge have homered in the same game, and on Sunday it was Soto, Judge and Giancarlo Stanton going back-to-back-to back in the seventh inning off hapless Rockies rookie reliever Jeff Criswell.

Batting second in the order with Judge behind him has worked like a charm — Soto is trending above his career averages in every offensive category apart from stolen bases, with a left-handed swing tailor-made for the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium. His OPS this season is 52 points higher than his career average of .959.

And the 25-year-old Dominican has been wildly popular in the Bronx; even Judge admits to joining in on the “Please Stay Soto” chants from the fans. With the Yankees in first place in the AL East, what’s not to like?

Yankees future with Juan Soto: What's next after 2024?

But as we head towards postseason baseball, Yankees fans know there’s a chance Soto takes his talents elsewhere when all is said and done with this magical year. As a pending free agent, let’s hope he doesn’t leave for Flushing, Queens, or even worse, for Boston or Baltimore. Those teams all have owners with deep pockets and hungry fan bases, and with a potential $500 million free agent payday in his near future, the bidding will be heated.

After watching former Yankee Michael King get roughed up by a Francisco Lindor grand slam on Saturday in San Diego, it’s easy to forget exactly who the Yankees gave up to acquire a year of Soto’s services. Anyone remember any of the names besides King?

Here’s your reminder again: it was a seven-player blockbuster, with Soto and Trent Grisham heading east, while righties King, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito and pitching prospect Drew Thorpe all went west, along with catcher Kyle Higashioka. Of course the Yankees are hoping to keep Soto in pinstripes for the rest of his career, but what did the Padres get out of the deal longer term?

Apart from being embarrassed by the Mets this past weekend, King has actually been good for his new team. In the 25 games he’s started, he’s pitched to a 3.02 ERA over 143 innings. That’s the fifth-lowest ERA for a qualified starter in baseball this year, and with 12 quality starts he’s added an fWAR of 3.3 to rank 14th among MLB starters this season.

Obviously you have to give to get, but with another year of team control, through the 2025 season, the 29-year-old King will help stabilize the San Diego rotation beyond 2024 along with Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish.

Speaking of Cease, he’ll also be a free agent after next year. Padres GM AJ Preller acquired him from the Chicago White Sox by flipping Thorpe, the prospect they’d acquired from New York in the Soto trade, along with two other prospects and reliever Steven Wilson.

That trade has worked to San Diego’s advantage, with Cease making 28 starts and pitching to a 3.57 ERA over 159 innings. The 28-year-old righty is ahead of Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal for the league lead in strikeouts with 197, and his 14 quality starts and 3.9 fWAR have clearly added value for San Diego.

Higashioka has been a solid addition for the Friars, starting 62 games at catcher alongside teammate Luis Campusano, and providing good offense as well, with 16 home runs, 43 RBI and a .793 OPS (17% better than league average), all good for a bWAR of 1.4. Like Soto, he’s a free agent after this season.

Vasquez has a 4.52 ERA in 18 starts and 87 2/3 innings for an fWAR of 0.7, and while Brito (4.12 ERA in 26 games and 43 2/3 innings, fWAR 0.3) is on the Padres’ 40-man roster, he’s not on the big league roster at present. Both have higher ERAs than the league average.

Trading Grisham also opened up centerfield in San Diego for 21-year rookie Jackson Merrill, who was an All-Star in July, and has slugged 19 home runs, with 75 RBI and a .290/.322/.487 slash line this year. His .809 OPS is 25% above the MLB average. That’s good for a 3.5 bWAR, and he also only costs $740,000 versus $5.5 million for Grisham.

Net net, Soto has added 7.3 wins above his potential replacement player on the Yankees this year. That’s outstanding production, and merits a huge free agent contract given he’s a four-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger, as well as the 2020 NL batting title winner and a 2019 World Series champion — all already at age 25. He’s a generational player. You don’t like seeing talent like that walk out the door.

Trading away Higashioka also opened up playing time for Yankees rookie catcher Austin Wells, who has a 2.3 bWAR and .767 OPS, 14% better than league average, in 76 starts (83 games overall). Wells is also only making $750,000 versus Higashioka’s $2.18 million.

Grisham has been only replacement level, with a bWAR of 0, and he’s now blocking top Yankees prospect Jasson Domínguez from the 26-man roster, which makes him "addition by subtraction" material.

But adding up King, Cease, Vasquez and Brito, they're good for an fWAR of 8.2 for San Diego (FanGraphs tends to be a better measure of WAR for pitchers). Merrill — who was blocked by Grisham — and Higashioka have combined for a bWAR of 4.9 for the Padres (Baseball Reference tends to be a better measure of WAR for hitters).

And all of them — apart from Higashioka — will likely be on the team again next year, with Merrill, Brito and Vasquez all potentially under team control through the 2029 season. By freeing up playing time for Merrill, and adding King, plus Cease (indirectly via a package headlined by Thorpe) to their starting rotation, as well as a year of Higashioka and pitching depth in Vasquez and Brito, at least San Diego didn’t totally embarrass themselves by losing Soto (and actually created some more wins).

They appeared unlikely to sign him to a long-term contract extension anyway, especially after the passing of owner Peter Seidler, so at least they were able to bring back something of value by dealing him. It hasn’t added up to an NL West pennant ahead of the Dodgers by any means, but the Padres are still in a Wild Card, sitting two games up on the Braves as the No. 2 seed.

That all could make for an historic storyline if the Yankees and Padres were to meet in the 2024 World Series. Imagine Soto and Judge going back-to-back off King in a championship clinching win?! One can dream.