Rangers vs. Yankees prediction and odds for Friday, June 23 (Back over)

Jun 16, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; New York Yankees third baseman Josh Donaldson (28)
Jun 16, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; New York Yankees third baseman Josh Donaldson (28) / Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees are trying to tread water without Aaron Judge, but it won't be easy with the Texas Rangers coming to the Bronx.

The Rangers are one of the most potent offenses in baseball this season, propelling the team to first in the AL West. Can the Yankees find enough offense to match the Rangers on Friday? The team will try to get past Dane Dunning, who has been stellar to date, but are is he underlying metrics inflating his value?

Here are the odds:

Rangers vs. Yankees odds, run line and total

Rangers vs. Yankees prediction and pick

Dunning is a prime regression candidate after a hot start to this season. The right hander has started eight games in appeared in 16 while striking out fewer than six batters per nine innings. However, Dunning has avoided trouble despite his underwhelming strikeout mark due to an incredibly low home run to fly ball rate of below 6%.

Dunning's ERA is 2.78, but that's supported by an xERA of 5.07 as he enters the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. Yes, the Yankees don't have its best hitter in Aaron Judge, but the team should be able to handle the slow throwing Dunning that allows way too many balls in play.

However, I can't trust Luis Severino to shut down the Rangers lineup. The rigth hander has an ERA north of 6.00 as he battles diminishing control (striking out fewer than nine batters while walking more than three per nine innings). Texas is the best lineup at hitting right handed pitching in the big leagues this season, batting .266 on the year.

I expect a high scoring affair on Friday night as the Rangers should have little issue getting to Severino, but the Yankees offense should be up to the task against the overrated Dunning.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.