Projecting Yankees Playoff Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and ... who else?
It's crunch time.
This is it, New York Yankees fans. The team's magic number to clinch the AL East is one. To clinch the top seed in the AL? Three. It's all right in front of them, starting Tuesday night when Clarke Schmidt takes on the Baltimore Orioles in what could be a season-defining series.
With six games left on the schedule, the Yankees are in the playoffs and will be preparing for October as they navigate the task at hand. And that brings us to the most pressing discussion: the postseason rotation.
How many arms will manager Aaron Boone go with? For the first time in a very long time, the Yankees have the luxury of depth. Schmidt, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes, Luis Gil and Marcus Stroman can all start games. While that won't be the reality, it's probably the best possible problem to have.
Right now, we can count on Cole and Rodón starting Games 1 and 2 of a hypothetical Wild Card series or ALDS. It's hard to imagine any different alignment. Their salaries and big game experience do all the talking, and it helps there's the righty-lefty dynamic with these high-leverage arms.
Who follows, though? Could it be different each series depending upon the matchups? Could it all be determined this week as Schmidt, Cortes and Gil have their final auditions? We might be able to tell based on the team's pitching alignment for the next six games:
- 9/24 vs Orioles: Schmidt
- 9/25 vs Orioles: Cortes
- 9/26 vs Orioles: Cole
- 9/27 vs Pirates: Rodón
- 9/28 vs Pirates: Gil
- 9/29 vs Pirates: Schmidt
Should the Yankees secure a first-round bye, that puts them on track to play their first postseason game on Saturday, Oct. 5, so that essentially has no effect on the current rotation alignment. Anybody would be set to start any game in that series. As for Stroman, he's currently in the bullpen, so his usage will be much more fluid.
If the Yankees get stuck in the Wild Card round, Cole and Rodón are lined up to handle the first two games, and then Boone will have plentiful options (with the exception of Schmidt, who will be on short rest, unless the Yankees use his final "start" of the season as a throw day). But that's all we'll talk about that. It needs to be ALDS or bust.
Cole on Oct. 5, Rodón on Oct. 7 at Yankee Stadium. Easy enough. Maybe there's a world in which Cortes, who pitches much better at home, gets the Game 2 nod. That way, if he falters early, the Yankees will have all of Schmidt, Gil or Stroman to use if they need to recover from an early hole and/or eat innings to save the bullpen in a lost effort. The other option? Use both Rodón and Cortes in the hypothetical Game 2. That would avoid the Yankees having to pitch either of them on the road (they have the most drastic home/road splits of any Yankees starter by far). That would save all of Schmidt, Gil and Stroman for the away games: Schmidt and Stroman have better road numbers, and Gil is completely even.
Rodón has a ghastly 4.69 ERA away from Yankee Stadium, with Cortes not too far behind at 4.46. That's compared to 3.09 and 3.11 at home. Schmidt owns a 1.39 mark in eight starts on the road, followed by Stroman (3.09 in 14 games) and Gil (3.43 in 14 games).
So, if we were to guess, the Yankees are going to roll with a rotation of Cole, Rodón and Schmidt, while using all of Cortes, Gil and Stroman as piggyback and/or spot start options. They can be as flexible as they want to after Rodón, which allows them to be a bit guarded with their alignment, and it's probably better that way.
Just no Deivi Garcia/JA Happ nonsense this time around. Any other plan would be sufficient. But as long as we know there's flexibility and strategy beyond Cole and Rodón, fans can rest easy as they await a division and No. 1 seed clinch.