Phillies vs. Yankees prediction and odds for Monday, April 3 (Trust Nestor Cortes)

New York Yankees starting pitcher Nestor Cortes.
New York Yankees starting pitcher Nestor Cortes. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees took two of three games from the San Francisco Giants in their season-opening series, and they’ll look to build on that momentum when the Philadelphia Phillies come to town for Monday night’s contest. 

Philly won the National League last season, but the team is off to a slow start, going 0-3 against the Texas Rangers over the weekend. The Phils scored seven runs in their season opener, but they managed just four runs the rest of the series. 

New York has All-Star left-hander Nestor Cortes on the mound in this game to face a familiar face in Taijuan Walker. Last season, New York faced Walker twice during his time with the New York Mets, tallying five runs in 11 innings against him. 

The Yankees’ offense has been solid to start the season, but does it stay hot tonight?

Here’s a look at the odds and my best bet for this matchup: 

Phillies vs. Yankees odds, run line and total

Phillies vs. Yankees prediction and pick

Walker pitched well against the Yankees last season, but I’m not worried about him as much as I am with Philadelhia’s offense. 

It’s clear that the absence of Bryce Harper has shortened the team’s lineup, and even with the addition of Trea Turner for Philly, I think the Yankees are the team to back here. 

Cortes was the team’s No. 2 starter all of last season, and injuries to Carlos Rodon and Luis Severino forced the Yankees to go in a different direction to open the season. 

Still, I think there is value on Cortes at home. 

Last season, the Yankees lefty was elite at home, holding opponents to a .161 batting average against and posting a 1.95 ERA across 15 starts. Cortes was 6-1 at home last season, and his ERA was over a run better than it was on the road (3.06). 

The Phillies hit lefties well last season, but the team managed just one run on Sunday Night Baseball against left Martin Perez.

I’ll back the Yankees at home to move to 3-1 on the season. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.