The Yankees took game one of the three game series against the Orioles in what is a measuring stick matchup for the two postseason contending clubs.
New York looks to make it two in a row over Baltimore with left hander Nestor Cortes on the mound. Cortes has struggled this season, but are better times ahead? The same can't be said for Tyler Wells, who has pitched lights out to start the season, but may have some concerning underlying metrics.
Here are the odds for Wednesday's matchup:
Orioles vs. Yankees odds, run line and total
Orioles vs. Yankees prediction and pick
Cortes' numbers are a bit inflated. He has a 5.21 ERA this season, but he's been a bit unlucky with allowing home runs and opponents finding holes in the Yankees defense. He has allowed nearly 1.5 home runs per nine innings and opponents have a .305 batting average in balls in play this season. He has an xERA of 3.79, indicating that he should turn it around real soon.
The same can't be said for Wells, who has the opposite kind of regression looming. Opponents are hitting .163 on balls in play against the Orioles right hander, a stark contrast when compared to Cortes, so his 2.94 ERA can blow up quickly. However, the Yanks are still not an elite hitting team this season. The team is batting just .238 this season and while the club has plenty of power (namely via Aaron Judge), Wells is great at painting the corners and limiting walks with less than two per nine.
Cortes should have a handle on this Orioles lineup, but I can't trust the Yankees to take advantage of Wells and hand him some much needed regression. For me, it's the under on Wednesday night.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.