One stat hints Aaron Judge-Bobby Witt Jr. MVP race will be as close as possible

Yankees captain Aaron Judge's absurd and historic pace should've put the MVP race to bed weeks ago. But, given that he's a Yankee, and award voters love to find a reason to place Yankees players second on their ballot behind a top performer from one of those "little guy" teams (they're just trying their best!), this race is bound to be as tight as the one Jose Altuve ultimately captured in 2017 with inferior numbers.

Am I being sarcastic with this assertion that ball writers hate the Yankees? Am I kidding when I write that MVP becomes the "WAR award" only when it's convenient (eg, when writers have a Yankee to dismiss)? Who's to say? Why did Justin Morneau win the 2006 AL MVP over Derek Jeter? Maybe my point will be clearer if I end this paragraph the way everyone online who's pretentiously warning you they don't want to have a real conversation does ... with a wry exclamation point!

This time around, Judge's chief competitor is having a much stronger season than Altuve: Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., whose development path, uh, no longer looks like Anthony Volpe's (though there's still time!).

Witt Jr. has been destroying the baseball, hitting .352 (!!) with 25 homers and 92 RBI through Wednesday's action. He's also a ridiculous defender at short; his 17 OAA at the position almost feels like it shattered the scale. Judge? He's hitting .334 himself after finishing at .311 in his MVP season two years ago. 47 homers is pretty much unassailable ... again, unless you're Witt Jr., possessing a fairly airtight case yourself.

Monster season on both sides of the ball? Check, Judge doesn't have that (his defense in center doesn't match his defense in right, but the arm strength is still in the 78th percentile). Essential to a playoff contender? The Royals might just pull off the greatest year-over-year turnaround in MLB history after going 56-106 last season (but don't tell that to Carlos Rodón). Either player would be the runaway MVP if the other didn't exist, as exemplified by their current fWAR totals, which look identical without a magnifying glass.

Yankees' Aaron Judge will have to edge out Bobby Witt Jr. in fWAR to win MVP

At least this time, if Judge loses, he won't be falling to a cheater (but don't tell that to Red Sox fans!).

You can't go wrong with either Judge or Witt Jr., as much as Yankee fans watching Judge's nightly greatness would like to argue otherwise.

Besides the home runs, the one thing Judge has in his corner that he didn't have in 2022? That looked like an historic Yankee team barreling toward 99 wins. This club? Without Judge and Soto, they'd be bereft. It's quite possible the Royals have a deeper roster. Ultimately, that reversal might come in handy ... or it would, at least, if voters weren't biased against the Yankees. Oops, said it again. In the conclusion. Whoops.