Nestor Cortes might be playing himself out of a bullpen role with Yankees

Even before Nestor Cortes' recent struggles, it always felt like he was going to be forced out of the New York Yankees rotation. The emergence of Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt's breakout, and Marcus Stroman's arrival was enough to get the conversation started.

Had the Yankees made a move at the trade deadline, it would've been definite. But of course, they didn't and now they're paying for it. Stroman and Cortes have been costing the team dearly for at least a month now, and fans are kind of confused as to what the plan is.

What we can start guessing, though, is that Cortes might not even have a spot in the bullpen when all is said and done. Can you envision him pitching valuable innings down the stretch and in the postseason at this point?

Cortes' latest blowup came on Thursday night against the LA Angels, during which the left-hander allowed six earned runs on nine hits and one walk across 4 2/3 innings. He struck out just two batters.

One has to wonder if his shoulder is affecting him (he missed most of last year with an injury), but it's now been over two months of largely inadeqate production. Cortes had a 3.30 ERA and 3.43 FIP on May 28 (coincidentally, also a start against the Angels). On Aug. 9, those numbers have jumped to 4.42 and 4.10.

Nestor Cortes might be playing himself out of a bullpen role with Yankees

His last 12 starts feature just three quality outings and two that have gone beyond six innings. The Yankees are 3-9 in those games. Sure, some of it is because the offense was of absolutely no assistance, but most have been because Cortes dug an early hole he or the lineup couldn't get out of.

Fans love Nestor and wish nothing more than for him to perform like he did during his 2022 All-Star campaign, but what's even worse about this is that his peripheral metrics support the recent downturn. His location has been terrible. He's getting absolutely batterd by opposing hitters.

Cortes is among the worst in the league at giving up hard contact (11th percentile for hard-hit rate and 31st percentile for barrel rate). He's in the bottom three percentile for maximum exit velocity (117.4 MPH). He's not inducing enough strikeouts and he's not getting enough hitters to chase (which was a completely different story in 2022). He's missing with almost all of his pitches.

Cortes doesn't have a strong enough body of work to warrant a spot on the Yankees' postseason roster. He has just 128 games under his belt, and he's on pace for career highs in starts and innings pitched this year (his 28 starts and 158 1/3 IP from 2022 are the benchmarks).

But that's all we have on Nestor. In 2021 when he kind of broke out, he was a starter/long reliever, and only appeared in 22 games (93 innings). Then he took a leap in 2022. Then he was injured in 2023 (14 starts, 63 1/3 IP). And now he's surrendered the most hits in the AL (136) across his 24 starts this year.

If his stuff is only playing well in the second inning of his starts. For the year, this is his inning by inning breakdown:

• 1st inning - 5.62 ERA
• 2nd inning - 1.50 ERA
• 3rd inning - 6.38 ERA
• 4th inning - 4.88 ERA
• 5th inning - 6.41 ERA

How are we supposed to believe he'll be an effective reliever if and when the time comes? It seems to us he'll be used to eat as many innings as possible while the Yankees figure out their next move (spoiler alert: they probably don't even have one!) and then we will probably see the last of Cortes in September.

Another team will take a chance on him in a trade during the offseason and the Yankees will have to figure out a way to upgrade.