Mariners vs. Yankees prediction and odds for Thursday, June 22 (New York completes sweep)

New York Yankees starting pitcher Domingo German.
New York Yankees starting pitcher Domingo German. / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees are one win away from completing a sweep of the Seattle Mariners, can the Bronx Bombers get it done on Thusday?

After winning Gerrit Cole and Jhony Brito’s starts to open the series, New York sends Domingo German (4-4, 4.30 ERA) to the mound on Thursday against Bryan Woo (0-1, 7.30 ERA) who is making the fourth start of his Major League career. 

German hasn’t been bad for the Yankees this season, but some of his advanced numbers (34th percentile in expected ERA, 41st percentile in expected batting average against) suggest he could be in line for some regression soon. 

Will that come against the struggling Mariners?

Let’s examine the odds for Thursday's series finale and break down my best bet: 

Mariners vs. Yankees odds, run line and total

Mariners vs. Yankees prediction and pick

Even though German has not been lights out this season, I think the Yankees have the pitching advantage in this matchup. 

New York just beat Luis Castillo – the Mariners ace – on Wednesday night, and Woo is a far cry from Castillo this season. 

The rookie has struggled in three starts, pitching just 12.1 innings and allowing at least two runs in each outing. Seattle is fourth in the league in bullpen ERA, so a short outing won’t kill it, but the Yankees have the Mariners outclassed there as well, ranking No. 1 in MLB in bullpen ERA. 

German was awful in his last start against Boston, allowing seven earned runs, but he had been on quite the tear before that since the start of May. 

In his previous seven starts, German posted a 2.20 ERA and held opponents ot just a .178 batting average across 41.0 innings of work. 

Seattle has struggled on offense all season (24th in OPS) which is a great sign for the Yankees, who have not hit well at all since Aaron Judge went down. 

At the end of the day, I trust the Yankees’ pitching to help them get the sweep on Thursday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.