Grading the Yankees' last 6 first round draft picks

The 2023 MLB Draft begins on Sunday, July 9 and the New York Yankees will hopefully be able to use it to add to their strong stable of prospects down in the minor leagues. It is going to be a challenge to add high-level talent this year, given that this draft class is not particularly deep.

First, let's run down what we know for sure. The Yankees pick 26th overall in the first round of the draft with their draft position being based solely on where they finished last year (the Yankees weren't bad enough to be in the draft's brand new lottery system, nor did they get penalized for luxury tax spending). They also have the second lowest draft bonus pool in 2023 at $5,299,400, which is going to really limit their ability to do any overslot signing shenanigans.

The last time the Yankees really crushed a pick in the first round, it was when they picked Aaron Judge in 2013. Oddly enough, they also picked Gerrit Cole out of high school in the first round back in 2008 with the 28th overall pick, but he did not sign with the team. Fortunately, that worked out in the long run, although Cole was significantly more expensive to bring into the fold the second time around. If one turns their gaze to the Yankees' more recent first round picks, the results have been decidedly more mixed.

Here is how the Yankees' last 6 first round picks are doing

To figure out exactly how well the Yankees have done in the first round lately, we decided to go back and grade their last six picks with the benefit of hindsight. Given how recent these picks are, their grades could change dramatically even over the next few months if any of these guys go wild, fall off, or get hurt. Also, these grades are not scientific in any way. We will leave the statistical projections to those that can actually do the math.

Without further delay, let's take a look at the Yankees' last six first round picks in the MLB draft.

Yankees 2019 First Round Draft Pick: Anthony Volpe

Pick: 30th overall
School: Delbarton School (NJ)
Position: Shortstop

The Yankees were picking near the bottom of the first round in 2019 and were able to snag prep shortstop Anthony Volpe with the 30th overall pick. At the time, Volpe was considered a slick fielder with an advanced hit tool that many thought didn't have the size or swing to hit for much power. A lot of scouts liked him, as he got the most out of his tools, but his upside did appear to be limited.

Fortunately for New York, Volpe was able to overcome his perceived physical limitations and turned into one of the top prospects in all of baseball. His breakout season in the minor leagues would come in 2021, where he posted a 1.027 OPS with 27 homers and 33 stolen bases in the low minors. He would go on to hit 21 homers and 50 steals in 2022 and we were officially on Volpe Call-up Watch.

Volpe has indeed made it to the big leagues, and while his .688 OPS in his first 88 games in the bigs isn't great, he is still stealing bases, hitting homers, and playing very solid defense. The Yankees don't get full marks here just yet, as Volpe hasn't demonstrated that he can be an above average hitter the big leagues. However, getting this kind of value at the bottom of the first round is what you like to see.

Grade: A-

Yankees 2019 First Round Draft Pick: TJ Sikkema

Pick: 38th overall
School: University of Missouri
Position: LHP

The Yankees' managed to acquire another first round pick in the 2019 draft in a trade with the Reds that sent Sonny Gray to Cincinnati. With their newly acquired 38th overall pick, the Yankees selected LHP TJ Sikkema from the University of Missouri. Sikkema wasn't ever a flamethrower on the mound, but he had three pitches that scouts considered plus offerings, given his ability to command them and the deception in his delivery.

Sadly, the good news for the Yankees and Sikkema ended there. A shoulder injury cost Sikkema the entire 2021 season, and he struggled in 2022 with a 4.83 ERA before he was traded in the deal that brought Andrew Benintendi to the Bronx. He has since been moved to the bullpen and is currently at Double-A in the Royals' organization.

We aren't going to judge this trade too harshly, as injuries just happen sometimes and Sikkema was a good value in the first comp round. However, Sikkema's crossfire delivery should have been more a red flag when it comes to predicting a future move to the bullpen/injury than it was. At the end of the day, he only amounted to being an unremarkable trade piece. At least the Yankees were able to get something out of him.

Grade: C+

Yankees 2020 First Round Draft Pick: Austin Wells

Pick: 28th overall
School: University of Arizona
Position: Catcher

The Yankees found themselves picking near the bottom of the first round yet again in 2020's COVID-shortened draft. New York decided to select college catcher Austin Wells with the 28th overall pick. Wells was a bit of a mystery going into the draft because while teams liked his bat, he wasn't able to actually catch that spring because of an elbow injury. The Yankees were not deterred and brought him into the organization.

The Yankees were rewarded in their faith in Wells, as he has turned into one of the top offensive catchers in the minor leagues. He has shown a plus hit tool and plus power in the minors, including last season, where he put up an .897 OPS with 20 homers across three levels of the minors. He isn't going to be a fantastic defensive catcher, but he has made real progress as a backstop and he should be able to stick behind the plate in the big leagues.

We don't want to jump the gun too much with Wells, especially since he lost some time this season with a broken rib, but it looks like the Yankees managed to draft a big league catcher who can hit. Again, they don't get full credit until Wells demonstrates that he can be a big league contributor, but everything is looking good so far.

Grade: B+

Yankees 2021 First Round Draft Pick: Trey Sweeney

Pick: 20th overall
School: Eastern Illinois University
Position: Shortstop

New York actually picked a bit higher than normal in the 2021 draft at No. 20 and they ultimately went with Trey Sweeney, a college shortstop. Sweeney got a lot of attention for the video game numbers he put up at Eastern Illinois. The usual "small school" concerns existed, but teams loved his feel for hitting and raw power, despite a bit of a funky swing, and the Yankees ultimately pulled the trigger.

Since getting picked, the results for Sweeney have been mixed. The power has been there and he has even been running a bit as a pro, but he hasn't overwhelmed the competition with his hit tool, as he is working on his second straight season hitting around .240. He does work a lot of walks and has been reasonably productive, but he isn't exactly rocketing up the minor league ranks.

This one feels a bit too early to judge. Sweeney has made it to Double-A, which is not nothing, and he has been fine at the plate, but we would certainly prefer it if he would put up an objectively good season at the plate in the minors. Sweeney making it to the big leagues in the next couple of seasons is still in the cards, but a certain amount of healthy skepticism is warranted until he takes another step forward in his development.

Grade: B-

Yankees 2022 First Round Draft Pick: Spencer Jones

Pick: 25th overall
School: Vanderbilt University
Position: Outfielder

Finally, we come to the 2022 draft, where New York was again picking near the bottom of the first. The Yankees turned to pro player factory Vanderbilt University this time, as they grabbed Spencer Jones with the 25th overall selection. Jones was actually a really good two-way prospect out of high school, but an elbow injury and a commitment to Vandy led him to play in college. Despite only becoming an everyday position player relatively late in this college career, his decent hit tool and raw power got him on teams' radars. It didn't hurt that he possessed a 6'7" frame that is easy to dream on.

So far, the Yankees taking Jones has looked pretty smart. While his size has made him a bit vulnerable to striking out, Jones raked in his pro debut last year, and he has an .800 OPS with 10 homers and 21 stolen bases so far in 2023. It doesn't look like Jones will move particularly quickly through the minor leagues, but he is already considered one of the top prospects in the Yankees' farm system.

This is tricky because Jones is still very early in his development. Part of the issue here is that Jones is striking out over 30% of the time in High-A and there is a real chance that that never improves as he ascends the minor league ladder. There is a lot to be excited about with Jones, but he could easily still flame out.

Grade: B...but very incomplete

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