A familiar face will toe the rubber against the New York Yankees on Friday night, as Chicago Cubs starter Jameson Taillon (2-6, 6.93 ERA) makes his return to the Bronx for the first time since leaving in free agency.
For Yankee fans, Friday marks the first time they’ll see offseason acquisition Carlos Rodón (back injury) pitch for the franchise. It’s unclear how long of a leash the Yankees will have with Rodón, but it’s a welcome sign that he’ll actually be able to pitch for the first time this season.
New York was destroyed by the Baltimore Orioles in their series finale on Thursday night, putting the team into a tie for third place in the AL East with the Toronto Blue Jays. Can New York put that ugly loss behind them to start the weekend series with the Cubs on the right foot?
Here are the latest odds and my best bet for Friday night’s matchup:
Cubs vs. Yankees odds, run line and total
Cubs vs. Yankees prediction and pick
If there’s one thing bettors should be doing when betting on the Cubs this season, it’s fading Taillon.
The right-hander has made 14 starts for the Cubbies, leading them to just a 2-12 record in those games. The 6.93 ERA is bad, but Taillon also sports an ugly 1.52 WHIP and a 5.17 Fielding Independent Pitching.
He ranks in the 10th percentile in expected ERA this season and the 12th percentile in opponent batting average against. Simply put, the former Yankee has been awful.
New York’s offense was terrible in the month of June, but the team is starting to turn things around, ranking 17th in OPS over the last seven days and 19th over the last 15 days.
That’s not great, but it’s a step in the right direction.
The Yankees should have no problem scoring off Taillon, who has allowed at least three runs in 12 of his 14 starts this season.
Rodón is a bit of a wild card here, as we don’t know how effective he will be or how long he will pitch into this game. On the bright side, the Yankees are tied for the best bullpen ERA in all of baseball this season.
So, if Rodon does only last five innings or so, bettors can have confidence in the Yankees to hold a potential lead.
Still, I prefer a full fade of Taillon and will take the Yankees to have the lead through the first five innings on Friday night.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.