Austin Wells Rookie of the Year odds show he could still fend off Red Sox, Orioles

The New York Yankees might've messed around with Austin Wells' Rookie of the Year odds this season, but the latest data is proving that cream rises to the top.

Since moving to the cleanup spot and protecting Aaron Judge and Juan Soto in the absence of Giancarlo Stanton, Wells' offense has been a revelation, as well as a rare example of the Yankees correctly keeping their faith in someone's profile eventually revealing itself.

Many pundits were worried about Wells keeping up defensively back when he was drafted in 2020. Instead, he's evolved behind the plate, ranking as one of the league's elite framers this season, as well as the midpoint in caught stealing (56th percentile) and the border of the upper quarter in blocks (73rd percentile). He's made consistent contact, hit for power, come up clutch, and relegated Jose Trevino to the backup role that fits him a bit better (especially as his arm strength has receded).

Though losing reps to Trevino at various points throughout the season seemed likely to doom Wells in the minds of Rookie of the Year voters, his August/September surge during some of the Yankees' most important games has officially vaulted him back atop the conversation. Colton Cowser of the Orioles has put up similar offense at a less premium defensive position (and taken steps back over time, struggling in August/September concurrent with Wells' heater). Wilyer Abreu has been hidden in the shadows a bit, though his excellent season for the Red Sox merits top-three status (certainly more so than Ceddanne Rafaela's WAR-averse icy blue campaign).

Luis Gil, the odds-on favorite once upon a time, is now poised to battle it out with Abreu for a top-three ranking. According to the major sportsbooks, Wells is officially a slight favorite across the board, thanks in large part to moments like his lead-changing Monday dinger.

AL Rookie of the Year Odds: Yankees' Austin Wells surges ahead of the field

DraftKings, setting Wells at -110 and Cowser at +110, has the Yankees catcher as the slimmest favorite of any of the major books. The other noteworthy legal books range from -115 to -140, meaning Wells is still far from a cinch, but has a decided inside track.

Everyone knows voters love to pick against the pinstriped option presented to them, unless someone like Aaron Judge has a slam-dunk Rookie of the Year case. Judge's MVP could be awarded to Bobby Witt Jr., the same way Jose Altuve skunked it back in 2017. Wells could easily lose favor to Cowser, or a surging Red Sox player if Boston regains their footing in September.

But for Wells to be in this position after a months-long slump to open his first full season in MLB is nothing short of ridiculous, and he deserves commendation for flipping the odds (and overcoming the Yankees' platoon system).