4 questions the Yankees need to answer about the 2024 starting rotation

The Yankees' starting rotation is perhaps at a crossroads this offseason, and the front office has plenty of decisions on their hands with how to better prepare the staff for 2024.

They have a varied collections of arms: one established ace in Gerrit Cole; a few solid up-and-comers in Clarke Schmidt and Michael King; some guys coming off injury-riddled 2023 seasons like Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes; and a ton of upper minors depth.

It's assumed the Yankees' front office will be adding and subtracting from this unit in order to make the unit more efficient and supplement other areas of the roster, but they'll have to answer some pressing questions about their internal and external options as that plan comes into focus.

4 questions the Yankees need to answer about the 2024 starting rotation

Will they sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto?

The Yankees have been heavily linked to Yamamoto ever since Brian Cashman's September visit to Japan to watch the right-hander pitch live. Since then, he's finished his platform season with a better ERA than countrymen Masahiro Tanaka, Yu Darvish, and Daisuke Matsuzaka did in theirs, and threw a 14-strikeout complete game in the Japan Series to put the icing on the cake.

Yamamoto might be the best Japanese pitcher who has ever looked to make the jump to MLB so far, but this is no secret to rival front offices. The Yankees should expect to find themselves in a bidding war with the Mets and other suitors.

If Yamamoto is really the game changer he's been lauded as, the Yankees should stop at nothing in their pursuit. Pitchers that have thrown a full season's workload of innings are the most valuable commodities in today's market, and at just 25 years old, Yamamoto looks to be a better long-term option than just about anyone who would be available in free agency or via trade.

The right-hander sits 93-95 MPH with his fastball (he's topped out at 99), and has impeccable control of his secondary stuff, which includes a cutter, curveball and splitter. He would slot in at the number two spot in the Yankees' rotation and stay there for years to come.

Can they trust Carlos Rodón?

Rodón's first season in the Bronx was an unmitigated disaster in almost every possible way. His season debut was delayed until July 7 due to foream/back issues, he landed on the IL again in August with a hamstring strain, and pitched to a disastrous 6.85 ERA across just 64.1 innings. It's not what the Yankees were hoping for when they signed him to a six-year, $162 million contract last December.

In spite of all of that, it's not crazy to believe Rodón is capable of returning to his peak 2021-2022 form going forward. It's not as simple a fix as letting him heal from whatever lingering injury he might be dealing with, but many underlying metrics suggest that he's not too far gone.

Rodón's bread-and-butter pitch that made him such a coveted get on last year's free agent market was his four-seam fastball, which he threw about 95.5 MPH on average in 2022 with a spin rate of 2349 RPM and a full inch more than the league average vertical drop. In 2023, his fastball was uncannily identical, stuff-wise, but it got hammered. The problem was his location.

Spin and movement can only help a pitcher so much when their fastball catches too much of the plate, which is what happened to Rodón in 2023. Opposing hitters' numbers against his fastball when thrown in the shadow or chase zones (as defined by Baseball Savant) were nearly identical to those in past years, but more of his pitches were left over the heart of the plate in 2023.

Location is usually the last thing to fully return after a long injury layoff, and whatever mechanical issues Rodón has can also likely be fixed by Matt Blake and the Yankees' coaching staff. Or at least, conventional wisdom would suggest that.

What can they expect out of the young guys?

Perhaps more than any other team in baseball, the Yankees' upper minor leagues are loaded with guys who project to be solid big-league arms. Some of them have had brief stints with the major league club, but most haven't, and all of them are still question marks to some degree.

Starting with guys who have big league experience, it seems like Randy Vásquez is primed for a bigger role in the rotation in 2024. He's currently the sixth man on the depth chart, but with the low number of innings pitched out of the rotation by Rodón, Nestor Cortes, and Michael King last season, Vásquez could be called upon often when you bake in the inevitable injuries/rest periods.

Vásquez pitched to a stellar 2.89 ERA over 37.2 innings in 2023, but his 10.8% walk rate and 4.98 FIP suggests he still has work to do. He'll need to learn how to pitch on the edge of the zone before he can gain the full trust of the Yankees.

Two other familiar young arms who could make starts in 2024 are Jhony Brito and Luis Gil. Brito made the Opening Day roster in 2023 and struggled early on, pitching to a 6.32 ERA in 52.2 innings of work as a starter. He ended up looking a lot better in the bullpen, where his fastball-changeup mix played better, and put up a 1.43 ERA in 37.2 innings there. Gil spent most of 2023 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and made two rehab appearances in Single-A where he struck out six batters in four innings.

Aside from this crew, the Yankees have a few promising young arms waiting in the wings at Triple-A, who should get starts as the front office looks to limit innings of oft-injured veterans. The most notable arms of this group are Will Warren, Richard Fitts and Clayton Beeter the Yankees' Nos. 10, 16, and 12 prospects.

Warren spent most of last season in Triple-A, pitching to a 3.61 ERA in 99.2 innings. He'll need to work on his command and limit his walks and homers, but his stuff should play at the big league level. Beeter, too, has incredible stuff, but got bit by the homer bug in 71 innings at Triple-A and will likely need to figure things out before getting the call. Fitts received his promotion after a strong season in Somerset, but also will need to figure out hitters at Scranton before being trusted in the big leagues.

Ultimately, the Yankees have a lot of options waiting in the minors if one of their top five guys goes down, but nobody who can be relied on for a full season's workload, even as a number five starter. It's good to know that help is there when the major league team will inevitably need it, but it shouldn't stop the Yankees from exploring more proven options.