4 questions the Yankees need to answer about the 2024 starting rotation

Can they trust Carlos Rodón?

Rodón's first season in the Bronx was an unmitigated disaster in almost every possible way. His season debut was delayed until July 7 due to foream/back issues, he landed on the IL again in August with a hamstring strain, and pitched to a disastrous 6.85 ERA across just 64.1 innings. It's not what the Yankees were hoping for when they signed him to a six-year, $162 million contract last December.

In spite of all of that, it's not crazy to believe Rodón is capable of returning to his peak 2021-2022 form going forward. It's not as simple a fix as letting him heal from whatever lingering injury he might be dealing with, but many underlying metrics suggest that he's not too far gone.

Rodón's bread-and-butter pitch that made him such a coveted get on last year's free agent market was his four-seam fastball, which he threw about 95.5 MPH on average in 2022 with a spin rate of 2349 RPM and a full inch more than the league average vertical drop. In 2023, his fastball was uncannily identical, stuff-wise, but it got hammered. The problem was his location.

Spin and movement can only help a pitcher so much when their fastball catches too much of the plate, which is what happened to Rodón in 2023. Opposing hitters' numbers against his fastball when thrown in the shadow or chase zones (as defined by Baseball Savant) were nearly identical to those in past years, but more of his pitches were left over the heart of the plate in 2023.

Location is usually the last thing to fully return after a long injury layoff, and whatever mechanical issues Rodón has can also likely be fixed by Matt Blake and the Yankees' coaching staff. Or at least, conventional wisdom would suggest that.

What can they expect out of the young guys?

Perhaps more than any other team in baseball, the Yankees' upper minor leagues are loaded with guys who project to be solid big-league arms. Some of them have had brief stints with the major league club, but most haven't, and all of them are still question marks to some degree.

Starting with guys who have big league experience, it seems like Randy Vásquez is primed for a bigger role in the rotation in 2024. He's currently the sixth man on the depth chart, but with the low number of innings pitched out of the rotation by Rodón, Nestor Cortes, and Michael King last season, Vásquez could be called upon often when you bake in the inevitable injuries/rest periods.

Vásquez pitched to a stellar 2.89 ERA over 37.2 innings in 2023, but his 10.8% walk rate and 4.98 FIP suggests he still has work to do. He'll need to learn how to pitch on the edge of the zone before he can gain the full trust of the Yankees.

Two other familiar young arms who could make starts in 2024 are Jhony Brito and Luis Gil. Brito made the Opening Day roster in 2023 and struggled early on, pitching to a 6.32 ERA in 52.2 innings of work as a starter. He ended up looking a lot better in the bullpen, where his fastball-changeup mix played better, and put up a 1.43 ERA in 37.2 innings there. Gil spent most of 2023 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and made two rehab appearances in Single-A where he struck out six batters in four innings.

Aside from this crew, the Yankees have a few promising young arms waiting in the wings at Triple-A, who should get starts as the front office looks to limit innings of oft-injured veterans. The most notable arms of this group are Will Warren, Richard Fitts and Clayton Beeter the Yankees' Nos. 10, 16, and 12 prospects.

Warren spent most of last season in Triple-A, pitching to a 3.61 ERA in 99.2 innings. He'll need to work on his command and limit his walks and homers, but his stuff should play at the big league level. Beeter, too, has incredible stuff, but got bit by the homer bug in 71 innings at Triple-A and will likely need to figure things out before getting the call. Fitts received his promotion after a strong season in Somerset, but also will need to figure out hitters at Scranton before being trusted in the big leagues.

Ultimately, the Yankees have a lot of options waiting in the minors if one of their top five guys goes down, but nobody who can be relied on for a full season's workload, even as a number five starter. It's good to know that help is there when the major league team will inevitably need it, but it shouldn't stop the Yankees from exploring more proven options.

Which pitchers can be dangled for lineup help?

While major league teams can never have enough pitching, the Yankees' biggest need this offseason is an impact bat(s). There are a few options out there on the free agent market, but the most intriguing ones seem to be those waiting to be traded.

Considering how much upper minors pitching depth the Yankees have on their hands, it seems that it would be the optimal place to trade from. The question is, which arms will potential trade partners be interested in?

The rumors so far this offseason have the Yankees interested in Juan Soto, Brendan Donovan and/or Alec Burleson from the Cardinals, and Manuel Margot from the Rays. Considering the lack of control and the $12 million guaranteed to Margot, he likely wouldn't cost one of the Yankees' top arms.

But if the Yankees go after Soto, they'll need to pay up. Not only would they be trading for arguably the most valuable asset on the market, but they'll be dealing with Padres GM AJ Preller, who is no slouch in evaluating talent.

With Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Nick Martinez all opting out of their deals in San Diego, the Padres would likely be interested in someone like Schmidt, who could instantly slot in in the middle of their rotation and provide at least 150 innings.

If the Yankees decide to deal with the Cardinals instead, they could find themselves parting ways with some of their more controllable talent, such as Warren, Beeter, and/or Vásquez. The Cardinals are in more of a rebuild mode, so they might be inclined to take on major-league-ready pitchers who have yet to debut.

Of course, if the Yankees trade from their depth, they'll likely have to add some proven veteran talent. Perhaps Frankie Montas is brought back on a prove-it deal. Maybe they turn to a veteran like Wacha to fill those innings. The number of paths the front office could take is what creates intrigue, but they need to get it right.