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3 trade targets Yankees must avoid at 2023 MLB trade deadline

The Yankees still shouldn't be shopping for rentals, and can't make mistakes on controllable players.

By Adam Weinrib |
St. Louis Cardinals v New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals v New York Mets / Jamie Squire/GettyImages
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The 2023 New York Yankees buoyed their season with a series sweep over the weekend against the Kansas City Royals. Firmly in the Wild Card mix, the Yankees still can't justify a full-scale sell-off beyond the players they need to clear in order to cut salary/open roster spots. That said ... at the end of the next week and a half, they'll have played the Mets, Orioles (on the road), Rays and Astros. They'll know exactly what they are when Sean Casey's offense is confronted by contenders.

It's possible that when Aug. 1 rolls around next Tuesday, the Yankees will be bereft and looking to clean house. It's more likely, though, that they won't be able to swallow their pride and pack it in during a prime Aaron Judge/Gerrit Cole season. That means there will be some very specific missteps they'll have to avoid at the trade deadline.

No rentals. No career-long average players peaking right now. No expensive former top prospects who aren't worth the price tag (Michael Fishman, you paying attention here?).

Perhaps most importantly, none of the same process as last year. That process didn't work. The results were not there. Do not do that again.

The Yankees have already been connected to a few targets who feel either too expensive or actively harmful. Add in a veteran starter they've already been tempted by in the past, and it wasn't difficult to compile this list of three players who wouldn't help this year's cause.

3 trade targets Yankees can't afford to overpay for at 2023 MLB Trade Deadline

Dylan Carlson, St. Louis Cardinals

No player floated in rumor columns has felt more tempting to Fishman and the analytics department than Dylan Carlson.

Still just 24, Carlson was very recently one of baseball's top prospects, deemed untouchable in last summer's Juan Soto trade talks between the Cardinals and Nationals. In 2023, he's looked a lot more like Twins-era Aaron Hicks, hitting .238 with a 94 OPS+ and posting a .643 OPS in his past 28 days' worth of baseball. His profile is essentially calling out to the Yankees, waiting to be saved.

Technically, buying low on Carlson wouldn't be the worst long-term experiment. Only problem is the Cardinals aren't giving off an air of desperation to part with him. The cost might not be all that low here. While there might be an intriguing "sneaky platoon" element at play, too, that's no reason to surrender three prospects (likely all pitchers) for the same value against lefties as, say, Randal Grichuk.

You want to give up top talent in an effort to lead the charge in Carlson's reclamation project? Wait until the offseason. It's unlikely Sean Casey and Co. will be able to implement changes and alter the Cardinals outfielder's life by mid-August anyway.

Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox

Lance Lynn makes $19 million this season with this Chicago White Sox, which should be entirely disqualifying in this conversation before we even pass "Go." In order to absorb his remaining salary without crossing the top luxury tax threshold, the Yankees would have to clear ~$7.5 million from their payroll, which already sits $1.1 million above the top number. That would be Wandy Peralta, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Luis Severino.

In case you need further justification to avoid a return engagement with Lynn, he's remained remarkably hittable all year long, despite still-sterling strikeout numbers and whiff rates. Lynn's 139 Ks in 115 innings are impressive, and his ERA/FIP disparity indicate his best starts could still be ahead of him.

That ERA and FIP are 6.18 and 5.28, though. That is a bad starting pitcher in a season-long slump, by any measure.

The Yankees already tried to swipe Lynn and make him over during a mid-career stumble once back in 2018. They added him at a discount at the deadline after he'd signed late and posted a 5.10 ERA in 102.1 innings with Minnesota. That summer, he posted a 4.14 ERA in New York with a sterling and very unlucky 2.17 FIP ... but by the time October rolled around, he was deemphasized and misused, entering in relief against the Red Sox before bolting in free agency.

"That was Larry Rothschild! This is Matt Blake! The strikeout numbers are there now! They weren't before!" Enough. Enough. Don't clear $7+ million in salary to absorb Lance Lynn's contract. Don't. Not the time. Not the place. Shouldn't have to preach that, but we will just in case.

Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs

Sorry to everyone who watched the Cubs' offense pants the Yankees just before the All-Star break, but, especially in the context of recent reports about saving cash, pursuing Cody Bellinger as a short-term fix doesn't make any sense at all.

As the summer has progressed, Bellinger has felt like a both a perfect fit and a Joey Gallo candidate, with his prognosis changing by the minute.

Left-handed swing perfect for the stadium, .319 average, 145 OPS+, balance to the order, center field defense that maintains continuity with Harrison Bader out ... how can this fail?!

$17.5 million AAV (with $5.83M remaining), 2021-22 OPS marks of .542 and .654, bottom-tier hard-hit metrics this season (and an incredible, late-arriving ability to cut down his whiffs from 150 last season to 48 in 2023) ... there's no way this works.

Yankee fans have been gun shy about everything the front office has tried in recent years, and are still ringing from Gallo turning out to be the exact embodiment of their biggest fears during his time in pinstripes. Adding salary for Bellinger, who could hit free agency at the end of the year whether he turns back into a pumpkin or plays himself into an expensive new contract, feels like a tale of two mistakes for a hybrid team stuck in the middle.

It's cool that Clay was his dad, though. Maybe next winter.

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