The New York Yankees' regular season has concluded and they're headed to the postseason! That means that probably no one else can get injured seconds before the buzzer and throw off our projections while decreasing the team's World Series odds. Probably, not definitely! Oswaldo Cabrera could fall into the Springfield Mystery Spot. The chances are remote, though, and the Yankees should probably lay low for a while. Put as little strain on your elbow as you possibly can, pitchers. You've earned it.
Given the events of the past week, there's more in flux ahead of Oct. 5 than analysts were probably hoping for when they declared the Yankees "October's Healthiest Team" with a week to go in the regular season. The bullpen has a few crossed wires. One player who might've been DFA bait in August suddenly seems like a roster cinch. Key areas could expand instead of contract. One afterthought who was sitting at home on Sept. 29 might be tossed into Game 1 action.
With a few days of evaluation still ahead of us, it seems the Yankees could make any of the following roster shuffles, and none of them would completely blow our minds.
3 postseason roster decisions Yankees could make that would surprise, but not totally shock us
Carry 12 Pitchers, 5 Bench Players
If the Yankees advance to a longer series, this calculus changes. Anthony Rizzo might be (should be?) available if they creep into the best-of-seven ALCS. If the number of games ahead of them rises to a daunting point, they'll require more arm insurance. But ... for the best-of-five ALDS ... with an off day baked in between Games 1 and 2 that could result in Gerrit Cole being rushed back ... and with a few underwhelming arms battling it out for the final roster spots ... are we sure they won't just add a bench player and remove a pitcher?
Ben Rice, Jose Trevino, Alex Verdugo, Jon Berti, and he's-learning-first-base-kinda-but-not-really Trent Grisham. Carrying all five of these names seems like a better idea than shoehorning in Marcus Stroman.
Start Ben Rice at First Base Over Oswaldo Cabrera
Sunday's one-day showcase didn't go so great; Rice whiffed, was unproductive, and had a baseball donk off his glove on a dive, setting up a big inning for the Pirates in the rain. It was just one game, but it looked like many of the games Rice had following his three-homer game in July. The metrics show he was decidedly unlucky during his MLB stint, and he certainly looked hitter-ish when he first came up. Still, there's plenty of reason to be nervous about tossing him into the fire. Face reality: his nine homers in 19 Triple-A games, post-demotion, might've represented all the "normalizing" his advanced stats foretold, leaving a bad-luck couple of weeks in their wake.
Oswaldo Cabrera's versatility makes him an essential late-inning option, and his propensity for shortstop scoops means he can replicate Rizzo's vacuum cleaning. He's the leader in the clubhouse to enter the starting lineup semi-permanently. But maybe the Yankees would rather sub him in for Gleyber Torres in the eighth inning rather than play him out of position in the first.
Carry Tim Mayza Over Marcus Stroman
How did we get here?! In short, it's because Mayza's been an especially competent mop-up guy lately, and Nestor Cortes' injury has left the Yankees with only one left-hander in the bullpen. The Yanks won't forget his bullpen-saving 3 2/3 shutty in the Gerrit Cole Red Sox Game.
In long, it's because Marcus Stroman lost zip in the summer, and never recovered it. His June ERA of 5.13 proved not to be a blip on the radar, as the righty lost his attack dog persona over time. June became July became a 5.50 ERA, followed by a 4.56 mark in August and 8.80 in September, when his role was altered repeatedly. Given a save opportunity in a Seattle blowout, Stroman still clogged the bases with too many Mariners invaders. Handed a last-second start following Cortes' injury, he folded early against Baltimore, the Yankees' possible ALDS opponent. 31 hits in 15 1/3 September innings feels fake.
Stroman was a good value signing, and played a significant role along the way in eating innings and dismissing batters. A postseason demotion doesn't erase his strong May work. If the Yankees finish the job, he'll have earned a memorable parade speech. But in the ALDS specifically, expect Mayza -- who survived DFA after DFA, stunningly outlasting the likes of Michael Tonkin and Ron Marinaccio -- to get the ball, as the Yankees hope he doesn't actually have to enter the game.