3 players Yankees are poised to lose in Rule 5 Draft

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The Yankees took decisive action on Tuesday ahead of the 6:00 PM EST deadline to protect eligible prospects from the Rule 5 Draft, adding righty Clayton Beeter and catcher Agustin Ramírez to the 40-man roster.

Ramírez's addition was somewhat surprising, but even more notably, the Yankees did not go the extra mile to create roster spots, despite currently harboring several non-tender candidates ahead of the next key date, Friday Nov. 17. Before the end of that day, they'll probably have either traded or cut two of the six current catchers on the 40-man. Instead of getting ahead of it, though, New York simply filled the final two spots on their 40-man, maxed it out, and threw caution to the wind. That'll probably result in a few more prospects being swiped for new opportunities in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.

Just because you've lost someone in the Rule 5 doesn't mean you've lost them forever. In order for the poaching team to retain rights to the player they've taken, he has to remain on the roster for the entire season, not just through spring training. This stipulation has ruined many a gambit; we see you, Philadelphia Phillies, but there was no way you were sneaking Noah Song through the duration of 2023.

These three Yankees all have at least an outside chance to stick through the summer. Bullpen arms are always the likeliest to click -- and, even if they're struggling, a hopeless team can always "waste" a roster spot for an entire season just to continue a player's development the following year. That's how the Padres hid Luis Torrens for a full season when he'd just been a teenaged Yankees prospect minutes prior.

Yankee fans should expect to monitor these three players' tales all year long, though, because they probably won't be New York's property anymore after mid-December.

Yankees Rule 5 Draft: These 3 players should be gone

Matt Sauer, RHP

Though we've said this for multiple seasons now, it could finally be true this winter. Sauer's an injury risk waiting to pop, and somehow was not thieved following his career-best performance in 2022, highlighted by a 17-strikeout game at Double-A.

That gave the Yankees a second shot at watching him develop ... but, unfortunately, he remained overshadowed by names like Will Warren and Randy Vásquez, while being surpassed by breakouts like Jhony Brito, Chase Hampton and Drew Thorpe.

Sauer was still solid, working off his snapdragon curveball to strike out 93 men across 16 starts with a 3.41 ERA. The only issue? He covered just 74 innings in those 16 starts (17 outings). The righty was sent to the Arizona Fall League to showcase his stuff after the regular season, a sign of the Yankees' faith in him. That stint could also serve as a wakeup call to interested teams across the league, now that Sauer's been left unprotected again. This will probably -- finally -- be the year he departs.

Edgar Barclay, RHP

Of all the players left unprotected, Edgar Barclay was the most surprising and probably the likeliest to be stolen.

After all, there's nobody easier to draft-and-stash than a reliever, and Barclay made it to Triple-A Scranton last summer at the age of 25. While the righty couldn't quite match his most effective season -- 2022 with Hudson Valley, when he whiffed 86 men in 67.1 innings, posting a 1.74 ERA -- he still held his own, finishing with 78.1 innings, 100 Ks, and a 3.91 ERA.

Most of the damage done to that ERA came at the highest level; Barclay maintained a 1.32 mark in 33 innings with Double-A Somerset before being battered to the tune of a 5.89 ERA with the RailRiders ... in 10 starts. Yup. The Barclay the Starter experiment was probably borne out of necessity, with so many spot starters being recalled to the Bronx on a weekly basis. It did not go fantastically, and will probably mercifully end wherever he lands next.

Barclay is almost a lock to be taken, as well as a near-lock to survive at his new home. Whether he thrives has yet to be determined. The Yankees have made their bed here, and know they can develop bullpen arms semi-effortlessly. They think they can do better than Barclay, and now the righty will have a chance to prove them wrong (please in the NL, please in the NL...).

Mitch Spence, RHP

Mitch Spence, who I've always assumed was Australian for some reason (that's on me), is another 25-year-old righty who climbed to the upper minors in 2023 and spent the whole season soaking up innings at Triple-A.

This year went a lot like the previous ones. The 25-year-old Spence reached 163 innings, a career high. He struck out 153 men, a representative total. He finished with an ERA of 4.47, one year after posting a 4.70 mark, and two years after a 3.94 campaign in the Sally League. Hitters batted a combined .254 off him, following seasons of .268 and .249. This is who he is. A rock solid option if you're in desperate need of a No. 5, an innings-eating long man, and a valuable arm on any team, as long as he doesn't start his career in high-leverage spots.

It might be tough for whichever team claims Spence in the Rule 5 to keep him all year long, given his moderate ceiling. There could certainly be a night where Spence gets rocked, won't be available for a week, and forces the big-league team to decide between a demotion (that sends him back to the Yankees) and playing an arm short for a while. He allowed 30 homers last summer. A tough Spence game isn't unprecedented.

Still, it feels likely some team will take a chance on him after the Yankees' overcrowded upper minors forced him out of serious consideration for a rotation spot (or swingman role) in the Bronx.

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