3 optimistic predictions for Yankees in the 2023 MLB season

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The New York Yankees wrapped the 2022 season with 99 wins, though the road it took to get there was more up-and-down than a Roller Coaster Tycoon ride that ends up plunging into a lake by design.

Off to a 120-win pace through mid-June, the Yankees took their foot off the gas pedal around the All-Star break, eventually trading starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery for a player who wouldn't be available until September, as well as putting 2/5 of their rotation on ice to save bullets for the playoffs.

It didn't work. The magic stalled. But these methods also got this team to the ALCS? Much to ponder.

Overall, 2022 was a success, but not as big a success as Brian Cashman would like to make you think it was. Aaron Judge's history-making season is the textbook definition of why World Series wins and losses aren't everything; unless you're the most cynical among us, you'll remember that forever, as well as where you were during the major milestones.

That said, this team has plenty to solidify and work on before fans can feel confident they'll be watching a contender next year. The projection systems believe heavily in these Yankees; PECOTA pegs them as the most likely World Series winner entering the season. Fans might need a little nudging along, though.

How about this? If these optimistic predictions come true -- and they're not so crazy -- the Yankees really will enter October as the favorite to win it all.

2023 optimistic Yankees predictions for MLB season

Yankees Predictions: Carlos Rodón Outshines Gerrit Cole (But Both Dominate)

FanGraphs covered all their bases this week in projecting Cole and Rodón's seasons, and determined both pitchers are among the highest-variance aces in the game. Things could go extremely well; Rodón could continue limiting homers at a career-best rate, and Cole could shake off that bugaboo from 2022 knowing he has a Cy Young-level caddy behind him. They could also trend in the wrong direction. Rodón could grow to hate the short porch, and Cole could continue whiffing batters and dominating in the trenches, while sacrificing homers to the aging curve (got to give up something).

Our prediction? Both pitchers fall somewhere in between their 80th-percentile and 20th-percentile projections, but get closer to the best-case than the worst-case scenarios. Cole gave up an ungodly 33 homers after allowing just 24 in 2021. Another year removed from the sticky stuff ban means another year closer to adjusting (and, let's be honest, an increased likelihood MLB starts letting things slide).

Say Cole gives up 26 bombs, Rodón sees an increase from 12 to 18 ... but Rodón racks up 5.4 WAR in 180 innings while Cole bounces back to 4.1 WAR in 205. Bake in the balanced schedule, fewer games in the AL East, and stronger defense behind him, and it's not tough to see Cole improving significantly on 2022 ... while still being outpaced by Rodón, who's perfect for this team.

Yankees Predictions: Anthony Volpe Gets 150 At-Bats and Makes Playoff Roster

New York Yankees crown jewel prospect Anthony Volpe won't be on the Opening Day roster, though he'll get a significant chance to show off his skills in spring training after largely being relegated to mop-up duty in last year's camp.

But that doesn't mean he won't get a chance to make a big-league contribution after getting a few months more season at Triple-A.

Chris Kirschner made it clear this week in The Athletic that the Yankees are still exploring trades for Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Gleyber Torres ahead of Opening Day. Forget ruling out a Torres trade once the Marlins were eliminated as a landing spot. The Yankees have to make sure they have enough punch in their lineup in 2023, but there's a chance they'll make that a reality by promoting Volpe and utilizing DJ LeMahieu effectively rather than continuing to lean on Torres. Kiner-Falefa certainly sounds like a goner by midseason.

One or both maneuvers would open the door for Volpe, who had the first 20 homer/50 stolen base season in the minors since Andruw Jones last season. In a "down year." Right.

Anyway, you remember Jones' first big-league cameo, right? The Braves threw him right into the fire, where he slugged two home runs in a World Series game at Yankee Stadium in 1996? Expect Volpe to be promoted in late July and get more run than Oswald Peraza did last year, but not as a regular starter. When it comes time for the Yankees to pick their best 26 for the postseason, no one will be able to make a reasonable argument he isn't among them, after he swipes 12 bags, hits .267 and posts an .807 OPS down the stretch.f f

Yankees Predictions: Yankees Win AL East Over Second-Place Rays (By 6 Games)

Games aren't played on paper, nor are they played on the balance sheet. The New York Mets learned both lessons the hard way last year, to which Yankees fans responded, "First time?" like the James Franco-in-a-noose meme.

Since the Yankees' front office hasn't done much since December, it's easy to forget how much progress they made in the early part of the offseason, though. Bringing Aaron Judge back ... was massive, and hardly a given. Bringing Anthony Rizzo back as his copilot was equally slept on, in the wake of the media trying to push the narrative that nobody wanted to be a Yankee anymore because they were booed during the ALCS. Signing the best pitcher on the free agent market in Rodón -- someone else who wanted to be here very badly -- was a massive upgrade, especially considering Frankie Montas remains an unknown.

It's no surprise this team is pegged as the preseason favorite to win the East, and they should be considered the second-most-likely AL World Series rep (behind the Astros) until they prove otherwise.

Behind them? The Rays rotation, with Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs/Zach Eflin is ridiculous. Wander Franco should play a full season in 2023. They might not be a 100-win team like in 2021, but they're certainly not the 86-win team they were last year. The Blue Jays went all in on defense this offseason, adding Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho while trading Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. It's clear what they're attempting. It's not clear what it accomplishes; Varsho needs to be a 30/30 man for the losses not to be felt. Brandon Belt needs to play 130 games. George Springer needs to play 150; the outfield depth behind the three starters is as barren as Tampa's payroll vault.

There's a best-case-scenario for the Jays where they dethrone everyone, but the Rays' path seems much clearer and littered with fewer "What ifs?". All three teams will make the postseason, but the Yankees are still the best of the bunch -- by a comfortable degree. They clinch with about a week remaining.

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