Payton Tolle's immaculate start might actually encourage Yankees before Red Sox Wild Card matchup

With the New York Yankees likely to face off against the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, they will look to find any advantage they can to come out on top. That includes trying to gameplan against pitcher Payton Tolle, who will most likely be one of the Red Sox starters in the three-game set. 

There's no question that Tolle is one the league's best and brightest young pitchers. Not only can he dominate a game, but he's so dang likeable that it's almost impossible to hate him. But that doesn't mean he's perfect. 

Okay, he can be close to perfect sometimes, though. That's part of the problem. The Red Sox pitcher dazzled in the first inning in his Sept. 13 start against the Kansas City Royals. He threw the most smile-filled immaculate inning you’ll probably ever see, mainly utilizing his elite four-seam fastball. As his strongest pitch, he is using the four-seamer 45% of the time throughout his starts in 2026. And batters are hitting just .190 off of his heater on the season. 

However, as the game against the Royals wore on, so did Tolle. His fastball velocity showed signs of dropping later in his start. While that's not too surprising for a starting pitcher, it could also be something for the Yankees to monitor. If they can work counts and force Tolle to throw a lot of pitches as he approaches a new and uncertain innings threshold, they may be able to sap his effectiveness early. The Royals start, as brilliant as it began, actually provided the Yankees with a blueprint.

The Yankees did not have luck against Tolle earlier this season 

The Yankees are 1-1 against the Red Sox in games started by Tolle this season. However,  he faced little resistance against the lineup in his two starts. On April 23, Tolle allowed just one run on three hits in six innings while striking out 11 batters. The Yankees scored three runs once Tolle left the game and picked up the win in Boston. 

Two months later, Tolle pitched a seven-inning gem on June 26, once again at Fenway Park. He surrendered just one hit and two walks, striking out seven en route to a 6-1 Red Sox win. Nearly three months later, the Yankees will look to reverse their fortunes against the lefty. After a long season, the result could look a little differently for Tolle.

The 23-year-old has never thrown as many innings in a collegiate or professional season as he has in 2026. In fact, at 143 innings this season, he has pitched more than 50 innings over his previous career high. Now, you could look over at Cam Schlittler and say the thing, and you'd be correct. However, Schlittler’s velo hasn't trended downwards in a game as much as Tolle’s did on September 13. 

To start the game, Tolle was consistently hitting 97 MPH with his four-seamer, a modest increase from his season average of 96.1 MPH. But by the sixth inning, his four-seam fastball was clocked as low as 92.7 MPH. Tolle still remained very effective, getting through the game without allowing a run and striking out seven. It's hard to say for certain if the wear and tear of a long MLB season is taking its toll on Tolle, but it could benefit a Yankees' lineup that has had mixed results against the fastball all season. 

With an .845 slugging percentage against the heater, Ben Rice is by far the team's best batter when facing the cheese. He will look to set the tone early and jump on Tolle’s four-seamer. Luis García Jr. and Paul Goldschmidt have also raked against the fastball all season, though García Jr. has not hit as well against lefties. With Aaron Judge returning from injury and slowly returning to form, the team will have a decent advantage against any and all Red Sox fastballs, even Tolle's. 

However, hitters like Cody Bellinger and Austin Wells will remain massive wild cards for the Yankees in the postseason. Each player has struggled to find success against the fastball in 2026. And if Jazz Chisholm Jr. is healthy enough to return to the lineup, his .338 slugging percentage will be the lowest of any starting position player. It'll be interesting to see which of these trends continues against Tolle’s fastball.

To add a hint of intrigue to the series, New York could also be facing off against another one of Boston's strong LHP. The Red Sox will gingerly work Garrett Crochet back into the mix, though he will also likely be on a pitch limit. It's not certain how the team will utilize Crochet, but he could certainly be a dangerous weapon for them, especially if paired with Tolle.  

With Tolle already off to a great start in his career against the Yankees, he could continue his success this postseason. But with arm fatigue as a potential issue moving forward, his elite four-seam fastball may become just a little less overpowering. That's something that the Yankees could jump on.   

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