Numbers prove Yankees trusting Gerrit Cole over Carlos Rodón for Game 1 defies analytics

Following the New York Yankees' absolute drubbing of the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, you could argue that the vibes have never been better for the team in 2026. But as they prepare to face off against the Tampa Bay Rays in the Division Series, those vibes can only carry them so far. Now it's time to trust the analytics and play it smart. Or maybe it's not? 

Ahead of the series, Yankees manager Aaron Boone announced that Gerrit Cole will take the mound for Game 1 on October 3. Although it's not all that surprising to give the ball to one of the best starting pitchers over the last decade, the numbers in 2026 suggest that Carlos Rodón may have been the smartest choice. 

As noted by Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, Boone and the Yankees appear to be ignoring one of the Rays’ biggest weaknesses heading into the highly-anticipated series. In 2026, the Rays own the 4th best team OPS against right-handed pitchers in all of baseball. Against LHP? Their team OPS drops down to just the 25th best. 

With a combined .248/.315/.364 slash line against southpaws this season, Rays’ batters really struggled to drive the ball with any success. Although the team collected the fifth-most hits off of LHP in baseball with 436, only 36 of those hits left the yard. That was tied with the Miami Marlins for the fewest in the league. 

However, when matched up against RHP in 2026, the Rays boasted a .420 slugging percentage on their way to belting 133 home runs. Obviously a bulk of that production came from the bat of Junior Caminero, who hit 34 dingers against RHP all by himself. That’s nearly as many home runs that the Rays hit against lefties all year as an entire team. 

The numbers are pretty telling. But if there was any pitcher who could defy analytics, it's Gerrit Cole. 

Gerrit Cole has given the Yankees some strong postseason starts in the past

It wasn’t always smooth sailing for Cole during the regular season. After missing all of 2025, there was certainly some real rust to shake off for the former Cy Young Award winner. But like most great pitchers, Cole was able to battle through some occasional hiccups and figure things out as the season progressed. 

Although it wasn’t his best season as a Yankee, Cole never looked completely overmatched by opposing lineups. Right-handed batters did own a .702 OPS against Cole during the regular season though. That’s nearly 60 points higher than his career average. It was an entirely different story for Rodón. 

In 214 at-bats this season, RHB have just a .529 OPS against Rodón. That was about 170 points below his career average. It’s a small sample size, but the lefty showed an increased ability to neutralize batters from the right side this season. Perhaps Boone wasn’t swayed by the recency bias?    

While he's no longer the ace of the Yankees' starting rotation, Cole does have the pedigree to know that in the postseason, numbers from the regular season can get tossed out the window. Just look at Chicago Cubs superstar Pete Crow-Armstrong. Despite being the likely National League MVP and fWAR god this season, he went hitless in the Cubs' embarrassing Wild Card Series loss to the San Diego Padres. 

For Cole, he has the most postseason experience on the entire Yankees’ pitching staff. In 22 career playoff starts, he’s thrown 133.1 innings. With a 2.77 ERA and 1.020 WHIP, he has come up big more often than not during those starts. So while the Rays’ batters may be more inclined to light up RHP, Cole is well-prepared to counter their biggest strength. And if Cole can get his fastball up to 97+, there is additional logic behind the move.

We won’t know for sure if Boone’s gamble will pay off until Cole takes the mound in Game 1. But his trust in Cole shows that he may just trust his gut more than the analytics. 

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