MLB Pipeline prediction makes Roderick Arias' Yankees downfall look even sadder

If you're wondering why the New York Yankees gutted their international scouting operation and sent director Donny Rowland packing, look no further than what the world thought of Roderick Arias just two years ago, and how bad a bet that turned out to be.

Of course ... the Yankees' player development process is certainly at fault as much as the scouts who were sold on Arias and the folks who wrote the check. Still, it can't be denied that Arias was a bad bet in a long line of 'em, and it's easy to overlook just how far under his ceiling he managed to land.

MLB Pipeline released a retrospective this week looking back at who they predicted back in 2024 would be each team's top prospect entering the 2026 season. Did they nail it across the board? No, no. They certainly did not. The power never came for Enrique Bradfield Jr. of the Orioles. Miguel Bleis of the Red Sox remains more of an idea than a reality.

Arias, MLB's projection for the Yankees' supreme breakout just two years ago, was a can't-miss, next-in-line international shortstop star ... until he wasn't. Until he wasn't even workable. Until he wasn't in consideration for the Yankees' top 30 list this year.

From projected top prospect to off the bubble? Yeah. Heads have to roll.

Yankees' Roderick Arias, projected to be top prospect entering 2026, is nowhere to be found

Arias is still just 21 years old, but that's also the only thing to like about his portfolio these days. He has yet to play a single game above Low-A Tampa, and should be ticketed for the next level in Hudson Valley this year almost by default. Side note: he's going to get passed by 2025 top pick Dax Kilby. That will happen.

Arias' power was moderately notable in 2024, especially down the stretch. He struck out at a remarkable rate — 171 in 124 games — but at least he added 21 doubles and eight triples to his 13 homers, good for a .728 OPS. His July and August output looked like something.

Unfortunately, it was just a middling mirage. He repeated the level in 2025 and went down in every category, hitting .208 with a .640 OPS and just seven homers. That shouldn't be possible for anyone of any talent level, let alone someone with Arias' pedigree.

He's got speed (34 bags swiped in 103 games played last season), but everything else we were supposedly asked to keep an eye out for is either dissipating by the day or never showed up in the first place. It's not rare to see the experts whiff this hard. After all, prospect projecting involves banking on tools and hoping the rest aligns. Still, it's no secret why those who banked on Arias are swiftly being shown the door.