MLB insider speculates on Anthony Volpe trade as Yankees' decision looms large

We knew there was a possibility, but as Sunday came to a close, the New York Yankees confirmed our suspicions and optioned Anthony Volpe to Scranton as his activation window had come to a close. Now we're left to wonder what the fallout will be on a move that once seemed impossible.

Veteran MLB insider Jon Morosi believes it could potentially set up a trade scenario where New York moves on from the 25-year-old by July.

Appearing on MLB Network, Morosi highlighted the difference in performance between Volpe and Jose Caballero over the past two years, trying to make the case that Caballero's superior on-base percentage and glove were the motivating factors behind leaving Volpe down. If Caballero keeps that up, Morosi believes the Yankees could move the once untouchable shortstop at the deadline in order to fill a need.

"If we're in July and Volpe is still in the minor leagues and the Yankees are still winning games and there's a player out there that they need, and I'm another team that doesn't have a long-term shortstop, I would like to see how Volpe looks as a potential long-term shortstop somewhere else. Because if Caballero is the guy, for now and maybe even the next several months, potentially into next year, what about George Lombard Jr. coming along?" Morosi mused.

Yankees Rumors: Could Anthony Volpe end up being traded?

It's a fun thought exercise, but one that requires a bit more scrutiny. We thought at the beginning of the year that Caballero could be a pleasant surprise this year, and so far, his .259/.306/.405 line has been exactly that.

However, under the hood, it looks like what Caballlero is doing is a mirage. First percentile exit velocity, an 11th percentile hard-hit rate, and an 18th percentile launch angle sweet spot percentage aren't conducive to anything more than well below average offensive performance over time. Most importantly, he hasn't yet achieved his goal of 71 miles per hour average bat speed derived from his offseason work with Driveline, sitting at 68.5% thus far.

We'd love to see Caballero keep this up, but unless he makes some real changes, it feels like a house of cards that will all come crashing down.

Secondly, if Volpe is down in Triple-A, how much trade value would he really have? One would think that after three full big league seasons with a .662 career OPS and no clear offensive progress, a rival club looking for a long-term answer will probably want someone with more upside in exchange for a quality veteran. Someone like Lombard Jr., for example.

Speaking of the Lombard Jr. of it all, the Yankees have made it pretty obvious that if their No. 1 prospect hits the ground running in Scranton, he won't be there for long. So far, he's off and running, literally.

But Lombard Jr. might not be a threat to the shortstop job, even if his stay in Scranton is a brief one. Reports are that he'll bounce around the infield while Volpe mans short in Triple-A. Lombard Jr.'s immediate future could be as a defense-first utility option for the Yanks, and one that can pinch run late in games.

There's another key point to all of this. It's hard to believe that, after years of staunch defenses and unconditional support in light of all the evidence pointing to Volpe being a bust, the Yankees would turn on their golden boy. Instead, by holding him down for 20 days, they can gain an extra year of team control on a player they value.

It's essentially service time manipulation, but given the way Caballero has played, they have plausible deniability over a potential union grievance. The idea that he could become trade bait by the trade deadline is interesting, but ultimately the logic just doesn't track. The likely scenario is that, for better or worse, Volpe ultimately reclaims the starting shortstop job in the Bronx, regardless of whether it seems like the right call or not.

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