MLB insider's Jazz Chisholm Jr. contract prediction should clarify consequences of his season

Jazz Chisholm Jr. entered 2026 with his sights set on an eight-to-ten-year contract worth $35 million annually when he hit free agency at season's end. Obviously, the New York Yankees' second baseman can dream about whatever kind of contract he wants, but that doesn't mean it's realistic.

The ace up his sleeve seemed to be his proclamation that he'd turn in a 50-50 season. Coming off a 30-30 year, he had established himself as a legitimate power-speed threat, but he didn't realize the leap it would be to go from there to a plateau that consists of only Shohei Ohtani.

In the world where this awesome feat had actually come to fruition, Jazz might've had a slim case for the $300-plus million deal he was seeking. In reality, shortly after Chisholm Jr. made his contract desires known, the Chicago Cubs extended second baseman Nico Hoerner with a six-year, $141 million deal, essentially setting the market.

Chisholm Jr. had been a bit more dynamic than Hoerner up to that point, so it was reasonable to assume he'd land something in the $150-$160 million range, but not much more.

But then Chisholm Jr. crumbled this season when New York really needed him to step up. His wRC+ fell from 125 to 98. He made even more goofy plays in the field than normal, ate a lollipop, and couldn't seem to figure out what was behind his insane year-over-year falloff.

When the playoffs rolled around, Aaron Boone benched him against lefties, and even with a right-hander on the mound and facing elimination against the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 3 of the ALDS, Boone decided that Anthony Volpe would be a better option at second than Jazz. His hunch was right.

All of this begs the question: what's his market value now? Surely less than Hoerner, but when does the slide stop? FanSided's MLB insider Robert Murray broke it down on the Baseball Insiders Podcast.

"As far as Jazz Chisholm, this has definitely impacted his free agency, I would think, and I would also look at it too, as if you're the Yankees, can you offer him the qualifying offer at this point?" Murray said. "It's a hair over $23 million. That's been something that I've seen talked about plenty on my timeline on Twitter, and if the Yankees extended it, I think there's a strong case for him to take it, kind of like what happened with Trent Grisham.

"They could end up being put in a real difficult situation. So if I'm the Yankees, I don't offer Jazz Chisholm that qualifying offer, and that could end up boding well for his eventual contract because there's going to be some team looks at him in free agency and is like we're going to take a chance on this guy, and we're going to give him a big one-year deal, or one of those multiple year deals with opt-outs in it."

The Yankees are better off letting Jazz Chisholm Jr. go and filling second base with new blood

There are times when it makes sense to gamble with the qualifying offer on a guy who has performed for you in the past but is coming off a down year. But you should only offer the QO if you actually want the player back on that salary.

The Yankees should not want Chisholm back, even for just one year and especially with a $23 million price tag. There were points before where you could put together an argument, but after his disastrous play and even more egregious postgame quote regarding his first inning throwing error in Game 2 of the ALDS, essentially saying if he could do it over again he would, the final nail has been driven into his coffin. Playing in the Bronx means playing to win, and that's not what that comment showed.

So where do the Yankees go from here? There's always the option of moving Anthony Volpe to second base full-time, but it feels like that shouldn't be an uncontested situation. Luis Garcia Jr. was a second baseman up until this season, but he was moved to first because his defense was atrocious at second.

An interesting option that could possibly be aided by cutting bait on Chisholm Jr. is signing Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe. Lowe put up a 35-homer and .824 OPS campaign with a best-ever defensive showing. Pittsburgh would like him back, but might not be able to pay up to re-sign him. Chisholm Jr. could give them a cheaper alternative, opening up a pathway for the Yankees to sign the former Tampa Bay Ray.

While the Yankees' potential options to replace Chisholm Jr. aren't yet completely clear, what is clear is the fact that they cannot be duped into giving him the qualifying offer. The time to move on is now, just as Murray said.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow