The conventional wisdom is that luck matters the most when it comes to playoff success. The series are short and the sample size is small, so the team that gets hot at the right moment is the one who will come out on top. While there might be a kernel of truth there, when your championship drought has now gone on for 16 seasons, as is the case with the New York Yankees, the small sample argument stops holding water.
That's exactly the point Michael Kay made when he said that he doesn't want to hear "the playoffs are a crapshoot." Kay urged that when you're getting knocked out time and time again, you can't go back to that excuse, and instead need to "change the way you play."
Michael Kay's comments put pressure on Brian Cashman and the Yankees to build a roster better suited for postseason success
Since Hal Steinbrenner took control of the team, with the exception of 2009, the Yankees have done enough to be in the conversation when it comes to the playoffs, rather than be the conversation. Half-measures and silly gambits have prevented the club from being the dominant force it once was during its last run of glory in the late 90s and early 2000s.
Taking it a step further, the team has consistently been built for regular-season success, but that style of baseball doesn't always translate well to October, which leads to Kay's very astute point.
ICYMI on The Michael Kay Show on @ESPNNewYork:@RealMichaelKay doesn't want to hear "the playoffs are a crapshoot" excuse for the New York Yankees.
— ESPN New York (@ESPNNewYork) October 9, 2025
WATCH THE FULL SHOW HERE: https://t.co/ylvdmCGLoD pic.twitter.com/VLF9K5e64u
If you want to win in October, you need to play the game the way it's meant to be played in October. A look at what the Toronto Blue Jays did to the Yankees should tell you all you need to know.
The Yankees led the league in runs scored with 849, though admittedly, Toronto wasn't far behind, coming in fourth with 798 runs. In the ALDS, though, the Jays outscored the Yanks 34-19. Both teams received standout performances from their superstars, with Aaron Judge slashing .600/.684/.933 in the series, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. matching him every step of the way with a .529/.550/1.059 line of his own.
Judge was the only hitter who showed up consistently, though. Take Game 4 as a prime example; the Yankees had opportunities, yet left 10 runners on base.
Time and time again, the Yankees couldn't get the big hit to break the game open. In the ALCWS loss in Game 1 to the Boston Red Sox, New York loaded the bases with no outs, down 3-1, against Aroldis Chapman in the bottom of the ninth and came away scoreless.
It was deja vu all over again in the sixth inning of Game 1 against Toronto. Kevin Gausman had previously been dealing, but with a 2-0 deficit, the Yankees loaded the bases with no outs. They'd scratch across one run thanks to a Cody Bellinger walk, but that would be it, and they'd go on to lose 10-1.
The difference between the Jays and Yankees offensively is contact ability. Toronto hit .265 as a team, the best mark in the majors this season. The Yankees were 10th with a .251 average. The Yankees struck out the sixth-most frequently, with a 23.5% K-rate. The Blue Jays were the best in the league, going down on strikes just 17.8% of the time.
The next major issue the Yankees had was the bullpen. By the time the ALDS rolled around, it felt like Russian Roulette every time Aaron Boone made a call to the pen. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays sent the Yankees packing by throwing out a parade of relievers in Game 4. This, of course, should be a lesson that the Yankees already know. Their last run of dominance was built on the back of a lights-out bullpen after all.
And this is where Brian Cashman has his work cut out for him. Can he balance the patience and power that is foundational in the Yankees' lineup with the type of contact-oriented hitters who can make things happen in the postseason? Can he repair a bullpen that needs a near-complete teardown?
Or will he let stubborn tendencies and budgetary restrictions get in the way? If the Yankees continue down the same path and blame "luck" for their shortcomings, they can expect a lot more taunts from their rivals in the future.
