The Chicago Cubs' rumored overwhelming offer of Isaac Paredes, Seiya Suzuki, and one of Matt Shaw/Cam Smith, their most recent two first-round picks, certainly should've been enough to outbid the Yankees and secure a Kyle Tucker trade. Only issue with that package? They likely never offered it, and it's just about impossible to construct.
According to the latest intel from ex-GMs Jim Bowden and Steve Phillips (which ... take with a silo full of grains of salt, of course), the Cubs' first offer was actually Paredes and Cody Bellinger, a much less palatable package. While the 'Stros would love Paredes, Suzuki, and a top-tier prospect, Tucker seems intent on hitting free agency -- or, at least, will need a year in a new home under his belt before deciding on his long-term comfort, according to Ken Rosenthal.
While we certainly don't know how far apart the Cubs and Astros are, we do know that Suzuki has a full no-trade clause, something he purportedly has no interest in removing to facilitate a move to Houston.
That, along with Chicago's unwillingness to include Shaw/Smith, has opened the door wide for the Yankees, who do have a piece the Astros covet: Luis Gil. He, in all likelihood, given the low quality of the Cubs' pitch, hasn't been offered yet, either.
Yankees, Cubs both underbidding for Kyle Tucker as Cody Bellinger saga moves along
When Jack Curry speaks, we listen. When Ken Rosenthal puts out an oddly Yankees-centric Tucker column after we'd all assumed the Cubs were lapping the field, we definitely listen.
If the bidding hasn't yet reached critical stages, the Yankees need to hold the fort here. Don't offer Gil until the Cubs give you a reason to outbid them. Definitely don't trade for Cody Bellinger before you have to, giving Chicago more financial flexibility and comfort to craft a top-tier Tucker package. Don't let the Phillies get involved. Float Clarke Schmidt if absolutely necessary.
The Yankees would be clowned by the rest of the league if they added another rental outfielder without a long-term commitment, but they're a win-now team with an admittedly weak farm system. Last year, they traded a moderate package for Juan Soto, and they won now; he sent them to the World Series quite directly with a three-run home run. Michael King's a free agent next year. The one year of lumps the Yankees are going to have to take on that one would be largely mitigated by Tucker's addition.
Get it done. But don't go harder than you have to.