On Tuesday morning, free agent superstar Juan Soto left no suspense surrounding his qualifying offer decision, notifying the New York Yankees of his intentions well ahead of the deadline.
The qualifying offer, one of baseball's Most Rejected Things, represents a one-year deal at a hefty rate somewhat akin to the NFL's franchise tag (though the player has the agency here). MLB teams don't offer them to players they're afraid will accept them (Gleyber Torres). Instead, they mostly attach them to free agents who likely desire to hit the open market.
When they're rejected, they create an immediate insurance policy for the player's former team, forcing any team that signs a QO free agent to lose a draft pick to the incumbent club.
Of course, that won't be a deterrent in Soto's market. Teams like the Mets, Phillies, Dodgers and Red Sox would surrender 1,000 draft picks if it meant they could sign Soto. It should come as no surprise that Soto said, "Uh, no," to the Yankees' generous one-year, $21.05 million offer on Tuesday. Oh, well! Guess it's back to the drawing board! Add $600 million.
What does Juan Soto rejecting qualifying offer mean for Yankees?
If he returns to the Yankees at the end of his current free agent tour, it means absolutely nothing; they'll sign a contract with Soto in all his splendor.
If he leaves the Yankees, it means they receive a compensatory draft pick for their troubles. Unfortunately, they've been so far over the luxury tax in recent years that said pick would land sometime after the fourth round (its location has yet to be determined, and hopefully it never will be).
Oh, boy. A fourth-rounder could turn out to be ANYTHING. It could even be Juan Soto!
The Yankees' best course of action remains unchanged: go all out to sign Soto for 13, 14 or 15 years, battling back Steve Cohen's best financial advances and Bryce Harper's texts along the way. Tuesday's news changes nothing for the Bombers, but it does make it official that Soto is currently untethered to the Yankees in any way.