Jeremy Peña check swing could be season-swinging Yankees moment after Astros choke

I don't want to call the Yankees' season "over" on a Wednesday in August. That would be ridiculous. I've follied here before. I believed the season was over last summer after the horrific post-trade deadline meltdown in Miami where every single acquisition faltered, and they responded with a 25-9 surge and a series win over the Red Sox (just to see things quickly fall apart against the Blue Jays, yes). But while Tuesday night in the Bronx against the Astros may not be the literal end, there's a good chance that this particular game contained the tiniest moment upon which the likelihood of the Yankees reaching their ceiling hinged.

At the moment Jeremy Peña took a 1-2 near swing with nobody on and two outs in a recently retied 6-6 ballgame, the Rays had already lost in Detroit, and the Red Sox were tied in extras, having surrendered the equalizer on a dropped third strike that should've represented the final out. They were vulnerable and the Yankees were battling in an absolute roller coaster. But everything disintegrated in New York after Peña was ruled to have held up on a textbook 50-50 call (and, on the replay, it looked more like 60-40).

Based on what transpired in the immediate aftermath, the Peña check swing has a really good chance of being one of those little unforgettable moments that'll make any true Yankee fan cringe, those determinative tiny deaths hidden within a 162-game marathon.

Jeremy Peña, Yankees' 2022 ALCS tormentor, helped seed doubt in their season on Tuesday

On the very next pitch after the umpiring crew responded to the crowd's building cheer by deflating it with a "no swing" call - again, it was close, but it was surprising to see them stand their ground - Peña singled through the hole against a tiring Brent Headrick. Yordan Álvarez, the soon-to-be runaway MVP, scorched the very next pitch into the gap at (conservatively) 140 MPH, scoring the run. He scored, too, on a single, before an oil-leaking Headrick was pulled.

Of course - of course - the Yankees rallied in the eighth, cutting the deficit to 8-7, but could not rally any further once Josh Hader entered the picture. Of course - of course - the Red Sox survived and thrived, with Jarren Duran - who most fans would tell you they want sent into a black hole - hit a grand slam for his MLB-leading 14-17th RBI in the ninth inning or later. And of course - of course - the whole Yankees game would've been different if, in Peña's previous at-bat in the sixth, Fernando Cruz had thrown him literally anything other than a center-cut 91 MPH fastball with two outs, two strikes, a two-run lead and a runner on.

The Yankees now lead the Red Sox by two games in the loss column (1.5 in the standings) with two to play before Boston comes to town. The Sox play one more time in Miami, which appears to be a house of horrors for the Yankees whether they're playing there or not. They should've lost both of their first two contests and dropped neither. The Yankees bullpen and rotation blew three cathartic leads last night, two of which came after dramatic Luis Garcia Jr. rockets. There's a chance that Boston could pass the Yankees in the standings on Friday night in a Cam Schlittler start - and, no matter how much you believe or don't in this Yankees team, you have to acknowledge that heading to Fenway Park for a Wild Card series is close to a death sentence. Boston fans smell blood in the water. Moment after moment on Tuesday could serve as the straw the broke this previously resilient camel's back, but the Peña check swing looms large as the moment everything literally hung in the balance - and came up snake eyes.

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