Jazz Chisholm Jr. contract comp should have the Yankees already feeling queasy

After becoming just the third 30-30 player in the New York Yankees' storied history, Jazz Chisholm Jr. set himself firmly in the midst of nagging trade speculation all offseason. Coming off a career year and entering his final year of team control, he virtually made himself un-extendable, as his value was at an all-time high, and his proximity to free agency made the smart play simply to wait out the 2026 season.

The pundits then assumed that the Yankees would foolishly move the dynamic infielder rather than risk losing him in a year, overlooking the fact that getting back fair value for a player that few clubs have the financial wherewithal to retain long-term is a fool's errand.

Ideally, New York would have wrapped this up prior to him leveling up in 2025, but given the reality we live in now, figuring out his future will be a problem for next offseason. Getting a handle on how much he'll cost, though, is never a bad idea.

Mike Axisa of CBS Sports came up with a contract comp, and it's one that we have serious questions about the Yankees' meeting. Axisa suggests that Chisholm Jr. and his representatives will ask for what the San Francisco Giants gave Willy Adames last offseason. That's seven years and $182 million.

The Yankees might not have the stomach to give Jazz Chisholm Jr. the Willy Adames-type money it might take to keep him long-term

While the comparison is mostly an apt one, there are some important differences to note. Adames plays a more premium position as a shortstop and is a solid defender there. Chisholm Jr. is a solid defender in his own right and a selfless player, moving to third base twice with the Yankees and center field during the end of his Marlins tenure, but second base doesn't carry the same importance as shortstop does.

However, the similarities are pretty striking. Adames is a career 109 wRC+ hitter with consistent 30-homer power. Chisholm owns a career 110 wRC+ with a similar power profile, which has only been elevated with 81 games at Yankee Stadium. He could still be ascending. His recent 126 wRC+ is a number Adames hasn't reached in a full season (he did post a 126 mark in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign). Chisholm Jr. is also a much greater stolen base threat, with more steals over the last two seasons (71) than Adames has over his eight-year career (63).

Another factor at play is how light next year's free-agent class will be. Tarik Skubal will be the headliner, but on the offensive side of the ball, Jazz is the top dog, even if Bo Bichette opts out and decides to test the market again.

One mitigating factor is health. In the comparison with Adames, the former Milwaukee Brewer signed his mega-deal coming off a year in which he had played 161 games and had a mostly clean injury history. Chisholm Jr.'s career high is 147 games, and he has cracked the 100 games played threshold just three times in his career.

The 28-year-old has been outspoken about how he'd like to remain in New York, but as we learned with Cody Bellinger, those desires are easily eclipsed by the zeros stacked into the offer. After the standoff with Bellinger, how likely is it that the Yankees go to seven years with Chisholm Jr., or pony up the nearly $200 million that it might take to keep him in pinstripes?

That's a serious question without an easy answer. Without a Kyle Tucker to distract from his market like we saw in the Bellinger chase, the many second base-needy teams could come calling and drive this price tag to the moon. We're well past the club's free-spending era, which could mean losing Jazz for nothing a year from now.