It turns out both Yankees' and Marcus Stroman's rolls of the dice fully canceled out

Marcus Stroman is currently on the shelf with a knee injury, and he will not be returning to the New York Yankees when he's eligible to be activated off the injured list. Manager Aaron Boone says the right-hander's knee is still bothering him at the moment (he was placed on the IL back on April 12).

It's unclear how much time he will miss, but it is becoming clearer that he will not hit his vesting option for 2026. Stroman will need to pitch 140 innings in 2025 in order to trigger an $18 million player option for next year.

So far, across three starts, Stroman has logged 9 1/3 innings and could potentially miss a month of action. Last year, in 30 games (29) starts, he pitched 154 2/3 innings. Even if he reaches 25 starts, it very much feels like he'll fall short of that number.

For example, back in 2022, he made 25 starts with the Chicago Cubs and finished with 138 2/3 innings. Stroman averages about 5 1/3 innings per start for his career, but injuries have plagued him recently (not to mention, early in his career when he suffered a torn ACL and shoulder issues).

That's why it's totally possible the Yankees and Brian Cashman knew what they were doing when they threw in the vesting option for a third year. In the back of their minds, they probably knew Stroman's injury woes would hinder his ability to meet his end of the bargain.

Yankees' Marcus Stroman contract details a win for ... nobody?

On the other hand, though, they didn't expect him to be this bad when he was able to pitch. Over his last 27 starts, he's statistically one of the worst pitchers in the league with a 5.13 ERA. That's not worth the $18 million per year the Yankees are paying him, though after his first half in 2024 it seemed like it was.

Though some Yankees fans might call it a "win" that Stroman's unlikely to weigh down the payroll in 2026, it's definitely not a "win" that he'll more than likely collect $36 million in what could end up being two of his worst MLB seasons.

The Yankees took a plunge here. Even without hindsight, this was a poor move, given the history between the two parties and the fact Stroman would be pitching the back nine of his career with the Bombers with his injury troubles on full display.

And somehow, the unthinkable happened with Stroman performing this poorly. But that's what happens when you make half-measured gambles in free agency when spending a few more million would get you a more proven commodity.

Moral of the story? Stop doing this.