It feels like we're stuck with this version of the Yankees until after labor negotiations

The New York Yankees, as they are every year, are connected to nearly every top-tier free agent. Cody Bellinger? Check. Kyle Tucker? Check. Tatsuya Imai? Check. The list goes on and on.

But most years, those connections are just that; vague rumors or smokescreens as the club sits on its hands and cites budgetary restrictions as a reason why those moves weren't made. That's not to say that there aren't additions, but the number is not at all comparable to the amount of rumors that involve the team.

Nor do the moves made always square with the team's needs and mission statement. Though with a title drought that is almost old enough to get its driver's license, the days of championship-or-bust feel like a distant memory.

To date this winter, the Yankees have made two real moves. There was veteran swingman Ryan Yarbrough joining up for a second tour of duty, and then the much more significant decision by Trent Grisham to accept the $22.05 million qualifying offer.

Reading the tea leaves, we can all see where this is heading. Hal Steinbrenner is once again speaking, even though we'd all love for him to pipe down as he vaguely tries to convince us that the most iconic franchise in sports doesn't turn a profit.

From there, you can piece together comments from Steinbrenner and other prominent members of the organization to see where this is heading. Hal once again is doubling down on his stance that there's no correlation between a sky-high payroll and a World Series ring, despite the fact that the Dodgers are popping champagne for the second year in a row. Aaron Boone would have you believe that the 2025 Yankees were the most talented club he's managed. Brian Cashman is insisting that the Yankees are still exploring the market, but there's a certain still-to-be-determined salary level that they will "tag out" at.

Labor uncertainty makes it seem like we're going to be stuck with this version of the Yankees in 2026

The Yankees are creatures of habit, and with labor uncertainty on the horizon due to the current CBA expiring next December, a looming lockout will make the conservative franchise that much more risk-averse.

If we take recent history into account, we already know how this will play out. The Yankees' "undetermined" budget will top out just below the final luxury tax threshold, known as the Cohen Tax, named after the owner of the Mets, who sees it as a starting point, not an ending point as Steinbrenner does.

After Trent Grisham's decision to take the qualifying offer, Spotrac has the Yankees at a hair under $256 million for their 2026 playroll, which also factors in projected arbitration salaries. The most prevalent rumor right now is the return of Cody Bellinger. If that were to happen, we can tack on roughly $30 million, which brings us to $286 million.

The Cohen Tax is estimated to be about $305 million, so that would leave the Yankees with $19 million to work with. The number realistically is less than that. If the goal isn't to exceed that final threshold, the Yankees need to reserve some space for in-season moves, ranging from promotions, waiver claims, and trades.

Even if Bellinger comes back, the Yankees haven't addressed any of the ills from the 2025 roster. The offense still lacks right-handed balance. The rotation could still use reinforcements, given the injury concerns and uncertainty that exist. The bullpen was bad last year, and Devin Williams and Luke Weaver need to be replaced.

Moving on, some wants would be a stronger bench, competition for Anthony Volpe at shortstop, and an elite closer.

None of that is likely to happen, though. Not the dire needs, and certainly not the aspirational wants. If we assume Bellinger is back in the fold, the payroll is sitting at $286 million, and we know we need a cushion before the $305 million line, the question that needs to be answered is: how big is that cushion?

If we use the 2025 Opening Day payroll as our benchmark, the answer is about $15 million. Per Cot's Contracts, it was $288 million, and the club finished the year (which is what matters for the tax) at $303 million.

So, if the club re-signs Bellinger, they might be able to squeeze in one more odd or end, but that essentially caps the spending. There you have it, folks. The likely scenario for the New York Yankees' offseason is simply getting the band back together and running it back in 2026 with the hope that somehow their fortunes will be different this time around, and nothing will change until the CBA does.