Impressive Yankees offensive stat only emphasizes fans' postseason worries

The All-Star Game has come and gone, and the second half of the Major League Baseball season is now fully underway. The Yankees sent four players to the midsummer classic, hosted in Atlanta, then stayed in town for the first series back against the Braves, who sit behind the Miami Marlins. For whatever reason, the Yankees, fresh off the break, led with a bullpen game. They lost 7-3.

The 2025 Yankees are telling a story that Yankee fans have heard before. A disappointing playoff performance, an offseason of promising moves, and a hot start have become a familiar pattern. The Yankees, led by Aaron Judge and a competent supporting cast, came out of the gates hot with a 35-22 record. Continuing the script, June and July arrived, and the cracks started to show. The Bombers had a losing record in June and are similarly middling so far in July. The Toronto Blue Jays lead the American League East and the Boston Red Sox, who were four games under .500 coming into June and traded away the face of their franchise, are only a handful games behind the Yankees, occupying a Wild Card spot.

On Saturday night in Atlanta, the predictability of these midsummer nightmares continued. With Friday's loss still stinging, the bruise was punched further when the Braves took a 5-0 lead vs. Will Warren in the bottom of the fourth inning. The Yankees grabbed two back in the top of the fifth thanks to an Anthony Volpe home run, which the Braves immediately recovered in the bottom of the frame with an Ozzie Albies two-run single. Then, out of nowhere, the floodgates opened, and the Yankees poured on offense (including a Trent Grisham grand slam,) winning 12-9.

Following the game, Katie Sharp, of social media and Talkin Yanks fame, posted a stat that, at face value, seems like a good thing. However, fans are worried that it is an omen of postseason doom yet to come.

Are the 2025 Yankees too Boom or Bust?

After this game, the Yankees ranked near the top of the league for most offensive categories: first in home runs, third in runs, fourth in RBI, fourth in AVG, first in OBP, and first in SLG. Their pitching has been inconsistent due to injury, but it certainly hasn't been bad. When Saturday wrapped, they held the second-best run differential in all of Major League Baseball (+112), second only to the Chicago Cubs (+126). The Yankees have a great record at home and are .500 on the road. However, this stat illuminates a worry that many Yankee fans have, especially if this Yankees team is following the script of the past several years. Are they too boom-or-bust to succeed in the playoffs? Are Yankee fans doomed to watch another postseason appearance where the team gets exposed by a more fundamentally sound team? Will their 12+ run games of the regular season suddenly disappear against top-tier competition?

Many of the 2025 Yankees' struggles lie in the margins. They are 2-6 in extra inning games, and 13-18 in one-run games. In blowout games, games where either team wins by 5+ runs, the Yankees are 18-7. These stats, along with Katie Sharp's stat above, function as a kind of Baseball Rorschach test. Does it mean the Yankees choke when the game is close, or does it mean they keep most games competitive, even if they can't quite bridge the gap all the time? Both are reasonable interpretations. If the standings stay put, it is nerve-wracking to imagine a team that struggles in clutch situations in a Wild Card series. On the other hand, it's just as likely that Judge and company slug their way through.

Part of the struggle in Yankees fandom is acknowledging that these are champagne problems.
There are at least 20 teams that would immediately trade places with the Yankees. They have a first-ballot Hall of Famer, slugging en route to what will likely be his third MVP award. Despite the predictable slide, the Yankees are still well over .500 and in the first Wild Card spot. The Yankees currently have a 30-31 record against teams with >.500 winning percentage, but the Dodgers are 28-30 and have a run differential that is 47 runs worse than the Yankees. The Texas Rangers won the World Series the year before last, and they didn't have the best run differential in the league. In fact, they were 2-8 in extra innings and 14-22 in one-run games. The Yankees' current position in the season is not optimal, but it is far from doomed.

There are still some glaring holes in the lineup. Third base is a black hole. Clarke Schmidt just went down for the season. Devin Williams looked like he was putting everything together, then had back-to-back appearances where he allowed a run in Atlanta (but still got both saves).

The Yankees' destiny is still in their hands. The trade deadline looms and there's still a lot of baseball left on the calendar. There is still plenty to be hopeful about, but Yankee fans are desperate for a sign that says the team will be departing from the same script they've used for the past several years.