Former MLB GM suggests Gerrit Cole returning to Yankees isn't a guarantee

The Gerrit Cole contract opt-out clause discussion has been dissected far too much for what should be a relatively simple decision for the New York Yankees. Confirming five years and $180 million for Cole gets the job done, and that's probably what they should do.

Perhaps it's not that simple, though. The Yankees' most successful stretch of 2024 came without Cole, after all. Their April-May run was the reason they won the AL East and made the playoffs. Plus, Cole's two best starts of the postseason ended up somehow being losses. It wasn't his fault, but it just speaks to the overall vibe of the obvious fix not working, for whatever reason. It's like how so many of Aaron Judge's "clutch" home runs never come in winning efforts in the playoffs.

And don't forget about the Yankees' annual self-imposed financial limitations. They will draw a line in the sand, even if it means holding the team back, something they famously did after they traded for Giancarlo Stanton while Aaron Judge came off a Rookie of the Year campaign.

In Cole's case, there are debatable reasons not to re-sign him, if we really wanted to get nitpick-y. He's heading into his age-34 season. He's coming off of a major elbow concern that saw many of his key metrics drop (strikeouts, spin rate, whiff rate, etc.). He signed the largest contract ever for a starting pitcher back in 2019 and the Yankees only have early/embarrassing postseason exits to show for it. He has a penchant for giving up home runs and getting rocked by the Yankees' most hated rivals.

We'd probably call that shortsighted analysis, however. Cole's been a top pitcher in the league despite having pressure heaped upon him. Though his Cy Young award came during a hollow 2023 season, it further emphasized his ability to pitch at a high level into his 30s. But most importantly of all ... who are you getting that's better?

Yankees Rumors: Could New York actually let Gerrit Cole leave in free agency?

MLB Network's Steve Phillips, who is a former big-league general manager, laid out some pertinent points as to why Cole returning to the Bronx is not as much of a guarantee as most might think. Tacking on one year and $36 million to Cole's current deal sounds easy enough, but Phillips thinks there are other factors that could influence the Yankees to go in a different direction.

He mentioned pretty much all the shared concerns among Yankees fans, and then added that New York already got the best of the best they are going to get out of Cole. So, if that's the case, why not just spend on the next 29- or 30-year-old ready to deliver similar output?

Problem is that you have to trust the Yankees to sign two of Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell in order to make up for Cole's departure and postseason experience (and to combat the fact Carlos Rodón is not a No. 2 arm). There are also lesser options such as Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Martinez that could be attractive ... but not as attractive as Gerrit Cole.

The other option? Just re-sign Cole and add a couple of those second-tier options, too. Burnes will probably get $250 million or more (and his strikeout rate has also regressed annually since 2020 and significantly since 2021); Fried will get $175 million or more and comes with injury concerns; and Snell will command $30+ million per season and will be 32 in 2025. There's no perfect solution if the Yankees let Cole walk, and there's a risk of upsetting the clubhouse if that's the free agency approach.

Fans are frequently asking the Yankees to zig while everybody else zags, but this is not one of those instances. The answer is right in front of them, and they can choose to get cute/creative with other less impactful roster decisions.