2025 PECOTA projections hype up Yankees, hit Red Sox with a hammer

The New York Yankees were dealt a roster-building body blow when Juan Soto defected for the Mets, but they've picked up the pieces admirably in the aftermath.

Last year's roster, for all its flaws, was strong enough to come out of the American League rather easily, nabbing a pennant while deemphasizing base running and defense. In Soto's wake, the Yankees made sensible adjustments to many more sectors of their roster, shifting Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm back to their natural positions, and adding versatility (Cody Bellinger), pedigree (Paul Goldschmidt), and arm talent (Devin Williams, Max Fried, Fernando Cruz).

Most armchair projectionists would probably assume that, due to inaction around the rest of the AL, the Yankees would likely be projected similarly to the way they finished last year: best in the league and among the World Series favorites, but a tick below the National League's powerhouses.

The Robots and Computers at PECOTA tend to agree, giving the Yankees a very slight edge in the American League East, and the best odds of any AL team to capture a World Series, though the Dodgers are 1-in-5 favorites at the moment. Even better? These computers have no idea what to do with the Red Sox offseason, sending them to the basement of the AL East even though they look like a top-five team in the league on paper.

Yankees PECOTA Projections: System is bullish on New York, doubts Boston Red Sox

Now, imagine if the Yankees make one more midsize infield splash and Alex Bregman heads to the Cubs? Chaos.

Seeing the Sox fall back into the basement would be somewhat shocking; their biggest issue in the modern era has always been their pitching, and they dealt for Garrett Crochet and signed Walker Buehler, adding Aroldis Chapman to the bullpen and welcoming Liam Hendriks back from injury. Yes, they lost 31 Tyler O'Neill homers, but Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell could help there.

Clearly, the PECOTA bots believed Boston when they said they'd go "full throttle," though, and don't seem as bullish on the Red Sox rookies filling in the offensive gap. Add in Toronto's recent reinforcements, and ... yup, last, with a measly 12% chance to make the playoffs. That's Angels territory.

We'll believe it when we see it; Boston thrives on proving the "experts" wrong, and that goes double for the machines.

Still, it's never bad to see the Yankees on top, especially knowing that they likely have the capacity for further reinforcements.