3 Aaron Judge destinations if Yankees let him walk in free agency

Whether the New York Yankees didn’t deem it an urgent priority or they were standing in solidarity with the rest of the league’s owners to hold a firm stance on the next collective bargaining agreement, Aaron Judge, as of this moment, is set to enter 2022 in a contract year after not receiving an extension during last season or before the lockout.

Recently, Judge opened up about his contract situation and potential future in the Bronx, and it seems he’s resigned to the possibility that there may be no future offer and he could very will hit the open market.

Do Yankees fans think that will happen? Most probably don’t … but many are worried about what the team might do because they no longer spend as liberally as they used to and would run the risk of having three (or possibly four, depending on what else they decide to do this offseason) contracts on the payroll that feature $30 million AAV salaries.

At this point, the concern is real because the Yankees let it reach this juncture and have made it a priority in recent seasons to get under the luxury tax threshold when they’re the most valuable franchise in the sport (and one of the most valuable in the world).

So, in the (hopefully) unlikeliest event that the Yankees have the gall to let Judge test free agency next offseason, where might he land? The man is a top-10 (and arguably top-five) player in the game when healthy (career .940 OPS and 150 OPS+), so plenty of opposing GMs would be willing to take a gamble on such a player entering his age-31 season.

Aaron Judge could land with these three teams if the Yankees let him hit free agency

3. Seattle Mariners

That’s the Almost Contending Seattle Mariners to you! General manager Jerry Dipoto signaled before the lockout that the M’s weren’t kidding about their resurgent 2021 by signing Robbie Ray to a five-year contract and trading for Adam Frazier in a deal with the Padres.

Even with those moves, the Mariners’ payroll stands at $79.3 million for 2022 and $104.5 million for 2023 (assuming they tender everyone a contract and exercise every team option). It’s unclear what an extension for Judge might look like, but we can expect a beefy deal in the $200 million range. Let’s say it’s seven years for $210 million for the sake of argument.

That’s a $30 million AAV and would push the Mariners into the $130 million payroll range, which is still relatively low. The M’s reportedly haven’t approached current starting right fielder Mitch Haniger about an extension, which might indicate where they stand on him. The 31-year-old is entering a contract year as well, but has missed a ton of time due to various injuries.

Might as well just pay up for Judge, who’s a year younger and significantly better on both sides of the ball. And if Judge’s arrival coincides with the promotions of guys like Julio Rodriguez, Matt Brash, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock and others, Seattle could become a high-profile destination once again.

2. Chicago Cubs

Cubs fans were outraged that the team traded both Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, two core pieces and team legends from their 2016 World Series. But Jed Hoyer was on to something.

Scummy business or not, the Cubs are on a hell of a trajectory to contend as early as 2022. They signed Marcus Stroman to join Kyle Hendricks atop the rotation. They also brought in Wade Miley and Clint Frazier, both of whom could contribute in an above-average capacity if things go well. And don’t forget about Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer, both of whom came over at the trade deadline in the Craig Kimbrel deal with the White Sox.

They have a lot of young talent to potentially build around, too. Adbert Alzolay, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner and others are still under club control. Their payrolls are right in the $110 million range from 2022-2025.

An impact player like Judge could completely flip the weak-yet-all-over-the-place NL Central on its head. Now, one problem exists, and that’s the presence of Jason Heyward, who is the starting right fielder and is signed through 2023 at $22 million per season. However, the Cubs can either move him to center field (where he played 84 games in 2019 or trade him (what contender wouldn’t want a power-hitting defensive stalwart on an expiring contract?). Easy solutions.

Additionally, the Cubs have no players signed long-term. David Bote is the only player guaranteed a contract beyond 2023. They do have an improving farm system, though, after moving up from No. 24 in August to No. 15 in February in Baseball America’s rankings. Another big city with sky-high expectations for Judge? He’d fit right in if the Cubs will have him.