3 Aaron Judge destinations if Yankees let him walk in free agency

Whether the New York Yankees didn’t deem it an urgent priority or they were standing in solidarity with the rest of the league’s owners to hold a firm stance on the next collective bargaining agreement, Aaron Judge, as of this moment, is set to enter 2022 in a contract year after not receiving an extension during last season or before the lockout.

Recently, Judge opened up about his contract situation and potential future in the Bronx, and it seems he’s resigned to the possibility that there may be no future offer and he could very will hit the open market.

Do Yankees fans think that will happen? Most probably don’t … but many are worried about what the team might do because they no longer spend as liberally as they used to and would run the risk of having three (or possibly four, depending on what else they decide to do this offseason) contracts on the payroll that feature $30 million AAV salaries.

At this point, the concern is real because the Yankees let it reach this juncture and have made it a priority in recent seasons to get under the luxury tax threshold when they’re the most valuable franchise in the sport (and one of the most valuable in the world).

So, in the (hopefully) unlikeliest event that the Yankees have the gall to let Judge test free agency next offseason, where might he land? The man is a top-10 (and arguably top-five) player in the game when healthy (career .940 OPS and 150 OPS+), so plenty of opposing GMs would be willing to take a gamble on such a player entering his age-31 season.

Aaron Judge could land with these three teams if the Yankees let him hit free agency

3. Seattle Mariners

That’s the Almost Contending Seattle Mariners to you! General manager Jerry Dipoto signaled before the lockout that the M’s weren’t kidding about their resurgent 2021 by signing Robbie Ray to a five-year contract and trading for Adam Frazier in a deal with the Padres.

Even with those moves, the Mariners’ payroll stands at $79.3 million for 2022 and $104.5 million for 2023 (assuming they tender everyone a contract and exercise every team option). It’s unclear what an extension for Judge might look like, but we can expect a beefy deal in the $200 million range. Let’s say it’s seven years for $210 million for the sake of argument.

That’s a $30 million AAV and would push the Mariners into the $130 million payroll range, which is still relatively low. The M’s reportedly haven’t approached current starting right fielder Mitch Haniger about an extension, which might indicate where they stand on him. The 31-year-old is entering a contract year as well, but has missed a ton of time due to various injuries.

Might as well just pay up for Judge, who’s a year younger and significantly better on both sides of the ball. And if Judge’s arrival coincides with the promotions of guys like Julio Rodriguez, Matt Brash, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock and others, Seattle could become a high-profile destination once again.

1. San Francisco Giants

Come on, you knew it. This has long been a speculated landing spot for Judge if his tenure with the Yankees doesn’t work out. Rumors about the Giants’ interest in Giancarlo Stanton years ago also make this more of a potential reality.

And after a 107-win season with a number of those building blocks still in place — Brandon Crawford, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr., Tyler Rogers, Logan Webb and more — the Giants have no reason not to go for the jugular, especially with the Los Angeles Dodgers likely prepping for a spending spree with so many guys possibly coming off the books following 2022.

The Giants have estimated payrolls of $131 million and $87 million in 2023 and 2024. Evan Longoria’s huge contract either takes a big dip to $13 million in 2023 or can be bought out for $5 million. Brandon Belt’s qualifying offer figure of $18.4 million is done after 2022. The flexibility is there.

Another reason this could be a serious possibility is because reports have suggested the Giants might not spend big when the lockout ends. They’ve seemingly kept their distance from Kris Bryant. They let Kevin Gausman go. The only notable name they’ve been tied to in free agency is Seiya Suzuki, who could really end up anywhere given the excessive interest.

One thing we know about the Giants is that they thrive with a face(s) of the franchise. Barry Bonds, Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner and Crawford have been among the steady, main figures dating back to 1993. Right now, San Fran is an assortment of wily veterans and young studs, but one could argue they need a true star to bring back the glory days.

With a ton of financial flexibility and big market spending power, expect the Giants to be all over Judge (a Linden, CA native who sure as hell isn’t signing with the A’s) if he puts one pinky toe in the free agent pool.

Aaron Judge’s candor about lack of extension should wake Yankees up

The New York Yankees still haven't offered Aaron Judge a contract extension as he heads into his final year of team control. Here's what he had to say.