Predicting top 10 free agent destinations (and who Yankees could still sign)

The New York Yankees sure are in a pickle, huh? Bunch of holes on the roster, bunch of free agents still available, and yet … signing them is illegal.

Like, legitimately not allowed. Not in the way where it’s usually outlawed by Hal Steinbrenner and Hal Steinbrenner alone.

Someday, some way, the MLB Lockout will end and teams across the country will have between three and five days to sign stars in order to fill out their rosters ahead of Spring Training, which could last as long as a week before the regular season begins.

It’ll suck! The carousel will be crazy! And there are plenty of big names that will have to make decisions about their future way too quickly.

So … any chance the Yankees can get involved with the top names? Maybe sign a guy the rest of the league accidentally forgot about, and then it’s, like, April 1 and all 30 teams in unison look up like, “Oh, WHOOPS, there’s Michael Conforto!”

He fell just outside of our top 10 available free agents, for what it’s worth, but we’ve ranked the 10 names we see carrying the conversation whenever the lockout is lifted. We’re also predicting contracts for all of those 10 options and, just for you, putting a percentage point on the likelihood they’ll be Yankees by the end of this frenzy.

Truth be told, most of the Yanks’ work will probably be done on the trade market and at the margins, but they’ll have at least a reasonable shot at some of these stars.

Top 10 MLB Free Agent Destinations (and Yankees’ Chances of Signing Them)

10. Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber nearly locked it down with the Philadelphia Phillies just before the transaction freeze, and we still think it’s an excellent fit if Boston is aiming slightly higher to fill their outfield gap. We’ll get to them in a bit.

While the Yankees reportedly kicked the tires on a Schwarber trade for years, only to watch the Red Sox eventually do it and spur a playoff run — Cashman’s dream, huh? — we don’t see a fit here now, especially with Joey Gallo in left and Giancarlo Stanton more often than not in the DH hole. Slight bump for Cashman’s ambitions, but minimal shot.

Contract Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies, Three Years, $60 Million

Yankees Chances: 5%

9. Carlos Rodon

Now we’re getting somewhere. Sports Illustrated, mid-lockout, flipped their prediction from the Cardinals to the Red Sox here, but Boston has already filled out their rotation with one-year bounce back candidates (Rich Hill, Michael Wacha), and also have to make a decision Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock, who’s now firmly in the Joba Chamberlain Zone. He should be a starter. But how can you lose him as a reliever?! Brain buster.

We think the Yankees have more of a chance here than much of the league is admitting. There was reportedly interest prior to the lockout, and New York showed a willingness to offer Justin Verlander upwards of $40 million for a two-year, post-Tommy John deal at the age of 39.

Would they be willing to toss Rodon a similar contract and add a third year? He lost steam as 2021 went on, but still finished fifth in the Cy Young race. He’d be a big risk, but a huge boon if healthy.

If you’re taking our temperature now, we’re actually going to give the Yankees this one, and say the deal works out for two of the three years it lasts.

Contract Prediction: New York Yankees, Three Years, $64 Million

Yankees Chances: 30%

8. Seiya Suzuki

Boston Red Sox. This is so dumb.

Suzuki has been playing coy for weeks, going on Koji Uehara’s podcast and listening to him rag on Gerrit Cole, feigning innocence all along, but he knows exactly where he’s going. A Japanese report leaked that called a Boston signing a done deal, and then a counter report leaked claiming Boston was out of it and Suzuki would be headed to the West Coast.

And none of us bought it.

Boston traded Hunter Renfroe at the 11th hour for a reason. It would also make perfect sense that the Red Sox would be the only team allowed to make deals during the lockout, ostensibly, while MLB turned a blind eye because they just love, love, love them so much. Your secret’s out, dillweeds.

Contract Prediction: Boston Red Sox, Four Years, $70 Million

Yankees Chances: -1000%, He Has Already Signed in Boston

7. Kenley Jansen

Now, here’s something interesting. We know the Yankees shouldn’t spend big on relievers, but is Jansen really due to get a big deal, or has he slid back into the more reasonable corner of the market?

He was an extremely solid closer in 2021, bouncing back, but his FIP was 3.08, well above his 2.22 ERA. Was the 34-year-old Jansen lucky? Would he accept, say, a two-year, $20 million deal that the Yankees could almost certainly fit in their budget?

If so, why would he leave the Dodgers? Their bullpen has thinned out tremendously, and it would only get worse if he walked.

Turns out the Yanks had interest in Jansen once upon a time, but likely not this time.

Contract Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers, Two Years, $24 Million

Yankees Chances: 10%

6. Clayton Kershaw

Personally, I’m done pretending “Clayton Kershaw to the Rangers” has legs, unless Clayton Kershaw goes to the Rangers, at which point I’m going to pivot to telling everyone, “Yeah, that was so obvious.”

Kershaw’s star isn’t shining as brightly as it once did, but with a 3.55 ERA and 144 whiffs in 121.2 innings last season, he’s still very valuable — and no MLB club can use him as much as his current and lifelong team.

The Dodgers, without Max Scherzer, are several starters short (they were already a little thin with him), and they’re not going to let Kershaw get away as he rehabs from injury.

Unless they are going to do that, in which case they’ll lose him to the Rangers, and I’ll say I told you so.

Contract Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers, Two Years, $42 Million

Yankees Chances: 0%

5. Nicholas Castellanos

Oh, he’ll be a Yankee in a few years once the Marlins get fed up with his contract, but for now, we’re sending him to South Beach for four years, which he will enjoy very much for 2.5 of them.

Castellanos, about to turn 30, put up the best offensive season of his career in 2021 and priced himself out of Cincinnati (though they really should keep him), rocketing 34 longballs out of the yard, posting a 136 OPS+, and really ruining the life of one Man of Faith.

He’s not a plus defender, and is really more of a swing-from-the-heels culture changes, and we foresee the Marlins trying to woo him down to Florida to reset their lineup. Miami has the pitching. Now, it’s about taking the next steps.

Contract Prediction: Miami Marlins, Four Years, $84 Million

Yankees Chances: 0%

2. Freddie Freeman

The Atlanta Braves and Freddie Freeman have to come to their senses … right?

Well … not really. If they haven’t done it by now, why should they? If the Braves haven’t bent on adding a sixth year, why would they? Especially with a Matt Olson trade also on the table for them, according to what we’ve heard.

This one will come down to the Yankees, Dodgers and Braves, but though all the momentum is currently spiraling away from Atlanta, we happen to think these two crazy kids are going to work it out.

Even if the Yankees balked at dealing Oswald Peraza prior to the lockout, they still seem like the odds-on favorites to add Olson to their Opening Day roster. And, in our estimation, the Dodgers will use their cash elsewhere instead of signing the California kid Freeman for his final long-term chapter.

Though Freeman’s son Charlie might ask to join the NL West so he can see his hero Fernando Tatis Jr. more often, we think he settles with what’s familiar.

Contract Prediction: Atlanta Braves, Six Years, $180 Million

Yankees Chances: 15%

1. Carlos Correa

Here’s where the Dodgers’ Freeman money is going.

That didn’t take long, right? I bet you were like, “Hey, he said in the Freeman blurb they would spend the cash elsewhere. Where would they — oh, scroll down once, got it.”

Carlos Correa and the Dodgers have an even more explosive history to get over than Correa and the Yankees do. After all, the Dodgers lost the tainted 2017 World Series; the Yankees only lost the ALCS. It was Joe Kelly of the Dodgers who tossed the ball at Correa, then pouted at him back in 2020.

Without Corey Seager in Hollywood, it’s an easy sell, though, as Correa looks to propel himself past the Francisco Lindor $341 million threshold thanks to the power of Scott Boras.

We think he very slightly edges past it, while Trea Turner heads to free agency next offseason. The Yankees don’t make even one phone call on either player.

Contract Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers, Nine Years, $345 Million

Yankees Chances: 0%

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