Predicting top 10 free agent destinations (and who Yankees could still sign)

8. Seiya Suzuki

Boston Red Sox. This is so dumb.

Suzuki has been playing coy for weeks, going on Koji Uehara’s podcast and listening to him rag on Gerrit Cole, feigning innocence all along, but he knows exactly where he’s going. A Japanese report leaked that called a Boston signing a done deal, and then a counter report leaked claiming Boston was out of it and Suzuki would be headed to the West Coast.

And none of us bought it.

Boston traded Hunter Renfroe at the 11th hour for a reason. It would also make perfect sense that the Red Sox would be the only team allowed to make deals during the lockout, ostensibly, while MLB turned a blind eye because they just love, love, love them so much. Your secret’s out, dillweeds.

Contract Prediction: Boston Red Sox, Four Years, $70 Million

Yankees Chances: -1000%, He Has Already Signed in Boston

7. Kenley Jansen

Now, here’s something interesting. We know the Yankees shouldn’t spend big on relievers, but is Jansen really due to get a big deal, or has he slid back into the more reasonable corner of the market?

He was an extremely solid closer in 2021, bouncing back, but his FIP was 3.08, well above his 2.22 ERA. Was the 34-year-old Jansen lucky? Would he accept, say, a two-year, $20 million deal that the Yankees could almost certainly fit in their budget?

If so, why would he leave the Dodgers? Their bullpen has thinned out tremendously, and it would only get worse if he walked.

Turns out the Yanks had interest in Jansen once upon a time, but likely not this time.

Contract Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers, Two Years, $24 Million

Yankees Chances: 10%

6. Clayton Kershaw

Personally, I’m done pretending “Clayton Kershaw to the Rangers” has legs, unless Clayton Kershaw goes to the Rangers, at which point I’m going to pivot to telling everyone, “Yeah, that was so obvious.”

Kershaw’s star isn’t shining as brightly as it once did, but with a 3.55 ERA and 144 whiffs in 121.2 innings last season, he’s still very valuable — and no MLB club can use him as much as his current and lifelong team.

The Dodgers, without Max Scherzer, are several starters short (they were already a little thin with him), and they’re not going to let Kershaw get away as he rehabs from injury.

Unless they are going to do that, in which case they’ll lose him to the Rangers, and I’ll say I told you so.

Contract Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers, Two Years, $42 Million

Yankees Chances: 0%

5. Nicholas Castellanos

Oh, he’ll be a Yankee in a few years once the Marlins get fed up with his contract, but for now, we’re sending him to South Beach for four years, which he will enjoy very much for 2.5 of them.

Castellanos, about to turn 30, put up the best offensive season of his career in 2021 and priced himself out of Cincinnati (though they really should keep him), rocketing 34 longballs out of the yard, posting a 136 OPS+, and really ruining the life of one Man of Faith.

He’s not a plus defender, and is really more of a swing-from-the-heels culture changes, and we foresee the Marlins trying to woo him down to Florida to reset their lineup. Miami has the pitching. Now, it’s about taking the next steps.

Contract Prediction: Miami Marlins, Four Years, $84 Million

Yankees Chances: 0%

4. Kris Bryant

Kris Bryant’s market is certainly dissipating faster than anyone thought it would, right? He’s the forgotten star in this class, mostly because the Mets have no intention of pursuing him, and also because his tenure with the Giants in 2021 left a bit of a sour taste in the franchise’s mouth.

Bryant hit 18 bombs in Chicago, but saw his OPS+ dip from 130 to 113 when he traded in his pinstripes for orange-and-black block letters. Now 30, he’s not quite the spring chicken everyone remembers. Why, it feels like ages ago that he had his service time manipulated!

We wish the Yankees had considered a Bryant move last summer when it was rumored they would, and he could’ve theoretically split time in left and right while floating to third, covering injury absences.

Now, that door feels closed, though Bryant’s market is bizarrely dead. We always thought he’d be a Red Sox, considering his dad was a minor-leaguer in Boston decades ago and Bryant has always been in pursuit of Ted Williams.

If we’re giving the Sox Suzuki, though, we’re going to pass Bryant on to Seattle, a team that can supplement their Robbie Ray addition with a viable offensive threat — though the ballpark’s dimensions might end up a nightmare for him.

Contract Prediction: Seattle Mariners, Three Years, $60 Million

Yankees Chances: 0%

3. Trevor Story

This is the part of the prediction game that’s so hard.

We want to soothe Yankees fans’ jangled nerves by saying that it’s all going to be OK. That, sure, they won’t get Carlos Correa, but they’ll get one of the five elite shortstops that were available to them at the beginning of the offseason.

You know, the simplest way to compete for a title while still retaining Second Baseman of the Future Anthony Volpe.

Story’s the Yankees’ best chance to enter that market. He’s still very unlikely to head to the Bronx. He’s our Carlos Correa replacement, with the aforementioned Mariners coming in second.

We’re not sure why New York wouldn’t be interested on an inflated two-year deal, but we think Story will prefer the longevity with his elbow concerns. Is anyone going to top four years, though?

Contract Prediction: Houston Astros, Four Years, $120 Million

Yankees Chances: 10%

2. Freddie Freeman

The Atlanta Braves and Freddie Freeman have to come to their senses … right?

Well … not really. If they haven’t done it by now, why should they? If the Braves haven’t bent on adding a sixth year, why would they? Especially with a Matt Olson trade also on the table for them, according to what we’ve heard.

This one will come down to the Yankees, Dodgers and Braves, but though all the momentum is currently spiraling away from Atlanta, we happen to think these two crazy kids are going to work it out.

Even if the Yankees balked at dealing Oswald Peraza prior to the lockout, they still seem like the odds-on favorites to add Olson to their Opening Day roster. And, in our estimation, the Dodgers will use their cash elsewhere instead of signing the California kid Freeman for his final long-term chapter.

Though Freeman’s son Charlie might ask to join the NL West so he can see his hero Fernando Tatis Jr. more often, we think he settles with what’s familiar.

Contract Prediction: Atlanta Braves, Six Years, $180 Million

Yankees Chances: 15%

1. Carlos Correa

Here’s where the Dodgers’ Freeman money is going.

That didn’t take long, right? I bet you were like, “Hey, he said in the Freeman blurb they would spend the cash elsewhere. Where would they — oh, scroll down once, got it.”

Carlos Correa and the Dodgers have an even more explosive history to get over than Correa and the Yankees do. After all, the Dodgers lost the tainted 2017 World Series; the Yankees only lost the ALCS. It was Joe Kelly of the Dodgers who tossed the ball at Correa, then pouted at him back in 2020.

Without Corey Seager in Hollywood, it’s an easy sell, though, as Correa looks to propel himself past the Francisco Lindor $341 million threshold thanks to the power of Scott Boras.

We think he very slightly edges past it, while Trea Turner heads to free agency next offseason. The Yankees don’t make even one phone call on either player.

Contract Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers, Nine Years, $345 Million

Yankees Chances: 0%

3 trade packages that can help Yankees land Jose Ramirez

Is this the offseason the New York Yankees call the Cleveland Guardians about a Jose Ramirez trade? These packages could get it done.