Projecting Yankees’ free agent contracts after MLB Lockout ends

Believe us or not, but the New York Yankees are going to have to sign some free agents when the 2021-22 offseason resumes.

Are we promising they’re going to hit the upper tier and fill their shortstop hole for a decade to come? No. Absolutely not. But we are pledging they’re going to do something — there are too many current roster holes for them not to.

Some will be filled by trades. Some will be filled by cash. All proposed solutions will make you somehow madder than before the team took action. That’s the modern-day Yankee fandom guarantee.

How’s the process going to go down? That’s anyone’s guess, though the upper tier of the cupboard is now fairly barren outside of Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Seiya Suzuki and Kyle Schwarber.

Schwarber’s not a Yankee fit (even though he was a Brian Cashman pipe dream for five years), and was reportedly close to a Phillies deal before the lockout hit. Suzuki feels more and more like a Red Sox project every day. Correa’s preferred landing spot remains Houston on a blowout, short-term deal (or so we’re told…), but he also rifled a bunch of his Astros memorabilia into the straight-up trash recently, so who knows how that’s going.

That leaves Story, who many have projected will eventually be a Yankee when the dust settles on a bloated two-year contract. Count us … not among those people. Last-second discourse before the offseason’s flame was extinguished projected Story to the Mariners, and it still feels like he can get a five-or-six-year deal from Seattle, a team on the verge of contention. With his arm breaking down a bit, why would he settle for just two in New York?

We predict the Yankees will fill their shortstop spot with a trade, and will add an arm or two that way as well (stay tuned for a future list article…). As for the offseason’s free agency spending, all crammed into a big ol’ month before Spring Training begins, these are our predictions and contract projections.

Projecting the Yankees’ free agent contracts after MLB Lockout ends

3. Anthony Rizzo: 3 Years, $40 Million

He’s back, and he doesn’t cost all that much!

As much as we’d like Matt Olson on the Yankees, and as often as we’ve sounded the horn to deal Oswald Peraza and two or three other top-10 prospects in exchange for him, this isn’t about what we want. This is a projection of what we believe the Yankees will do. And as they move towards the end of the offseason without making any overtures at a top-tier free agent shortstop, let alone landing one, it seems likelier and likelier that the plan will be a short-term solution followed by a transition to a top prospect.

And do the Yankees really want to thin out that top prospect pool, removing Peraza as an option and leaving just Volpe and the teenaged Roderick Arias to boom or bust? We think not.

So, that leaves us with Anthony Rizzo, who changed the tenor of the 2021 Yankees immediately, both offensively and defensively, before succumbing to COVID-19 and coming back a bit sluggish at the plate (nobody hit more foul-ball home runs or ever will again).

Still, even after a tough few weeks at the end of August into September, Rizzo still posted a 110 OPS+ in the Bronx with a couple of massive home runs down the stretch, and he retained his excellent glove (and locker room presence). Bringing Rizzo back and expecting him to be an immediate monster is foolish, but he’s only a few years removed from a 2019 season where he hit .293 with 27 bombs and a 139 OPS+.

If he’s signed for three years, expect one standout season in the 120s and two similar years to 2021 before the regression really kicks in. We could absolutely see the Yankees settling here.

2. Joc Pederson: 2 Years, $25 Million

Remember when Joc Pederson was about to get overpaid because of his heroics during the 2021 playoffs?

Just two months later, that feels like a slice of the mid-1990s. There was a time when we actually played baseball? On the field? You’re yanking my chain.

All kidding aside, the dust has settled on Pederson a bit, and he’ll likely be competing with a number of similar free agents with a dwindling number of weeks to go to find a home when the MLB lockout ends. During this speed run, we predict Pederson will settle for two years of security and forego three.

Considering we’re feeling kind to the Yankees, we’re going to go out on a slight limb and project him here, now that his price has fallen slightly. After all, the Yanks could’ve used him prior to 2021 and midway through the season, so we’re going to call the third time the charm here.

Our plan for Pederson is basically the Seiya Suzuki Plan Lite; Joey Gallo moves to center for 40 games next year, pending an injury to Aaron Hicks. Aaron Judge gets 10 DH days. Giancarlo Stanton gets time off. Judge, Stanton, Gallo and Hicks presumably all miss some time. All in all, Pederson ends up playing 100 games in a Yankee uniform next season, then makes some fairly crucial appearances as long as they make the postseason, where he mashes.

Say goodbye to Brett Gardner. Finally. We think. We really do. We’re not just saying this out loud to convince ourselves of it.

Just ask yourself who you’d rather have filling out the outfield: Pederson, while sliding Gallo to center, or Kevin Pillar backing up Hicks? We rest our case.