Predicting moves Yankees will make at 4 key positions after MLB lockout

Whether you believe the New York Yankees will polish off their offseason with big moves or whimper towards Opening Day, the bottom line is: they need to do something.

It’s not just a desire. It’s a necessity. Even the flawed roster they entered the Wild Card Game with has been partially dismantled. Anthony Rizzo’s gone. Andrew Velazquez is gone. Tyler Wade, Rougned Odor, Clint Frazier, Corey Kluber…gone.

Were these your favorite players? Maybe Rizzo, definitely not the other guys. Regardless of what you thought of them, they’re all on other teams now (plus, Riz floating in the ether). If the Yankees were to “run it back,” they’d be about 1/4 empty. It’s impossible to think they won’t make three, four, five or six moves before camp opens.

How impactful will those moves be? Well, that’s still undecided.

As we see it right now, the Yankees remain especially incomplete at four positions: shortstop, first base, pitching, and outfield depth.

Say what you will about Gary Sánchez at catcher, but after they tendered him a contract, that ship seems to have sailed, as nice an addition as Willson Contreras could be in his final year before free agency. It seems likely the Yankees will replace Sánchez next offseason — either he fumbles the bag again, or finally breaks out and becomes someone else’s $80 million contract. For now, though, we predict he remains, especially since December and January will be months away from the bargaining table.

We’ve decided to predict where the Bombers will turn at the other Big 4 positions. We’ve tried to stay rational; some moves are large-scale, while others are classic bounce back and bargain basement propositions. Could the Yankees target Trevor Story and Carlos Correa? We hope so. It’d be a swing-and-a-miss if they don’t.

Do we think they will? Well…stick around and find out. Follow us around the diamond first.

The Yankees could address four positions of need with these post-MLB Lockout moves.

4. Predicting Yankees Moves: First Base

OK, here’s where we’re going big or going home: we still believe Matt Olson will be a Yankee when the season begins. Brian Cashman simply has to use his trade chips somewhere. The Yankees have spent all offseason shoving their belief in Anthony Volpe and Oswald Cabrera, the New Tyler Wade, in our faces. Oswald Peraza just has to be the centerpiece of an Olson deal. It makes too much sense not to happen.

Despite rumors intended to stir up discontent, you’d still have to think Freddie Freeman emerges from the lockout nostalgic, and decides to re-up with the Atlanta Braves, who’ve also softened their five-year offer to six. That’ll take the Braves off the table. While the Dodgers might be intrigued by bringing the Californian Freeman home, they won’t be desperate enough to sacrifice prospect capital to chase Olson, so they’ll just wait for Max Muncy and re-tool elsewhere.

Unfortunately, Anthony Rizzo has entered the crypto space. There’s no saving him now.

Combine all these dominoes falling, and the Yankees will pounce on Olson the way we thought they would back in November. Peraza, Luis Medina, Luke Voit, Elijah Dunham and Andres Chaparro for Olson and…a pitcher. Stay tuned.

3. Predicting Yankees Moves: Shortstop

This is a two-pronged prediction. No Story. Definitely no Correa. We’re, personally, setting those possibilities at 10-15% and at -1000%.

We’re also not prepared, though, to just pencil in Andrelton Simmons and call it a day, though he does seem like the most realistic addition. If Simmons is the move, he can’t be the only move, considering he can’t hit a lick and certainly won’t be improving in that department as he ages. All his Statcast metrics are trending down to a hilarious degree that’d leave him behind most of the National League’s pitchers, if we were ranking threats with the bat. He’s a praying mantis in the field and a garden slug at the plate.

Therefore, we’ve got the Yankees bringing in reinforcements and trading for possibly-busted Pirates prospect Kevin Newman. If he’s able to realize his potential, Newman brings all the bat-to-ball skills fans have been begging for, along with an adequate glove. Good enough in the field to be worth 0.5 WAR last season despite posting a horrid 56 OPS+, Newman peaked in 2019 at the age of 25, with a 110 OPS+, 12 homers, and 64 RBI while batting .308. Or perhaps he peaked last Spring Training, when he opened camp with a hitting streak that opened eyes, only to dissolve when April arrived?

Dillon Lawson seems like an ideal match for Newman, who’s got a short and quick swing that can execute a “wait for strikes, then pound strikes” strategy. He’s controlled through 2024, and certainly provides a higher potential peak value than former Yankees utility men like Ramiro Peña, Jayson Nix and Ronald Torreyes.

As we see it, the Yankees will rotate some combination of Simmons, Newman, and Oswaldo Cabrera around the infield this year. Disappointing, yes, but we don’t foresee a time traveling trip back to 2009’s offseason anytime soon.

2. Predicting Yankees Moves: Pitching

OK, let’s get the easiest move out of the way: yes, the Yankees are going to sign Matthew Boyd, formerly of the Tigers, who’s now been DFA’d two years after Detroit demanded Gleyber Torres in exchange for him at the deadline.

New York never did end up with Robbie Ray, their other 2019 white whale, but Cashman has always coveted Boyd, who struck out 238 men in 185.1 innings that season. That’s far more Ray-like than Andrew Heaney’s ever been (yes, we know, the Dodgers will turn him around, we’ve heard it all). He’s available for money alone, and shouldn’t command more than $7 or $8 million. He’s a Yankee. We don’t even have to think about it.

As for the rest of the pitching help? We’re adding Chris Bassitt into that A’s-Olson trade. Assuming Boyd comes to the Bronx, adding Sean Manaea to a rotation that also includes Jordan Montgomery and Nestor Cortes Jr., in some capacity, feels a little redundant. Bassitt, who got his face broken by a possibly-juiced baseball last season, is a pitching wizard who can fill the change-of-pace rotation role we’ve previously imagined Kyle Hendricks in. Last season, the 32-year-old posted a 3.15 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, legitimately dazzling as the A’s ace. If you have to add an additional piece to the package you’re sending to Oakland, you do it.

As for the bullpen? The Yankees won’t spend big there, instead relying on Matt Blake to emphasize changeups throughout the upper minors (look for recently-protected Ron Marinaccio to step in). These small deals could be very possible, though:

• Steve Cishek: One Year, $3 Million
• Jake Diekman: One Year, $4.5 Million
• Matt Andriese: One Year, $5 Million (love the Rays)
• Dellin Betances: MiLB Deal, $500K