Predicting moves Yankees will make at 4 key positions after MLB lockout

3. Predicting Yankees Moves: Shortstop

This is a two-pronged prediction. No Story. Definitely no Correa. We’re, personally, setting those possibilities at 10-15% and at -1000%.

We’re also not prepared, though, to just pencil in Andrelton Simmons and call it a day, though he does seem like the most realistic addition. If Simmons is the move, he can’t be the only move, considering he can’t hit a lick and certainly won’t be improving in that department as he ages. All his Statcast metrics are trending down to a hilarious degree that’d leave him behind most of the National League’s pitchers, if we were ranking threats with the bat. He’s a praying mantis in the field and a garden slug at the plate.

Therefore, we’ve got the Yankees bringing in reinforcements and trading for possibly-busted Pirates prospect Kevin Newman. If he’s able to realize his potential, Newman brings all the bat-to-ball skills fans have been begging for, along with an adequate glove. Good enough in the field to be worth 0.5 WAR last season despite posting a horrid 56 OPS+, Newman peaked in 2019 at the age of 25, with a 110 OPS+, 12 homers, and 64 RBI while batting .308. Or perhaps he peaked last Spring Training, when he opened camp with a hitting streak that opened eyes, only to dissolve when April arrived?

Dillon Lawson seems like an ideal match for Newman, who’s got a short and quick swing that can execute a “wait for strikes, then pound strikes” strategy. He’s controlled through 2024, and certainly provides a higher potential peak value than former Yankees utility men like Ramiro Peña, Jayson Nix and Ronald Torreyes.

As we see it, the Yankees will rotate some combination of Simmons, Newman, and Oswaldo Cabrera around the infield this year. Disappointing, yes, but we don’t foresee a time traveling trip back to 2009’s offseason anytime soon.

2. Predicting Yankees Moves: Pitching

OK, let’s get the easiest move out of the way: yes, the Yankees are going to sign Matthew Boyd, formerly of the Tigers, who’s now been DFA’d two years after Detroit demanded Gleyber Torres in exchange for him at the deadline.

New York never did end up with Robbie Ray, their other 2019 white whale, but Cashman has always coveted Boyd, who struck out 238 men in 185.1 innings that season. That’s far more Ray-like than Andrew Heaney’s ever been (yes, we know, the Dodgers will turn him around, we’ve heard it all). He’s available for money alone, and shouldn’t command more than $7 or $8 million. He’s a Yankee. We don’t even have to think about it.

As for the rest of the pitching help? We’re adding Chris Bassitt into that A’s-Olson trade. Assuming Boyd comes to the Bronx, adding Sean Manaea to a rotation that also includes Jordan Montgomery and Nestor Cortes Jr., in some capacity, feels a little redundant. Bassitt, who got his face broken by a possibly-juiced baseball last season, is a pitching wizard who can fill the change-of-pace rotation role we’ve previously imagined Kyle Hendricks in. Last season, the 32-year-old posted a 3.15 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, legitimately dazzling as the A’s ace. If you have to add an additional piece to the package you’re sending to Oakland, you do it.

As for the bullpen? The Yankees won’t spend big there, instead relying on Matt Blake to emphasize changeups throughout the upper minors (look for recently-protected Ron Marinaccio to step in). These small deals could be very possible, though:

• Steve Cishek: One Year, $3 Million
• Jake Diekman: One Year, $4.5 Million
• Matt Andriese: One Year, $5 Million (love the Rays)
• Dellin Betances: MiLB Deal, $500K

1. Predicting Yankees Moves: Outfield

Here’s where we get to be downers again: as we see it, the Red Sox are going to get Seiya Suzuki on a deal the Yankees are going to regret not completing. Five years, $64 million and a whole lot of patience and pop in right field at Fenway Park. The Yankees were reportedly “aggressive,” but the buzz (and Hunter Renfroe trade) have favored the Sox.

Hey, maybe it doesn’t work out. Probably wouldn’t if we’d done it. Regardless, that’s our prediction.

So, how do the Yankees cope? A healthy dose of Aaron Hicks staying healthy could help, but this isn’t team-building in Candy Land. That just will not happen. Joey Gallo in left’s a (relative) sure thing, but you can’t even count on 150 games of Aaron Judge in right, as much as we’d like to. That’s … why we wanted Suzuki so much! Onward.

Odds are Brett Gardner will still be around waiting to poach a spot when March rolls around, but we’re going to instead predict two names that Yankees fans are already familiar with: Kevin Pillar and Tommy Pham, welcome to the Bronx.

Using the highly analytical Jose Peraza Scale, Pillar will be New York’s gritty, gutty backup center field option in 2022, which is actually fine if he doesn’t get run into the ground. In 2020, Peraza and Pillar were Red Sox teammates. 2021? They were both Mets. 2022? Peraza’s now a Yankee, so … Kevin … we’re waiting.

Nearly 33, Pillar smacked 15 homers with an 88 OPS+ last season in Flushing, with his trademark all-out defense (how many times did he Superman the Yankees in Toronto?). 100 Pillar games is probably his upper limit, but there’s value there.

As for Pham? He’s an ex-Rays outfielder, which is typically how the Yankees operate: three or four years behind the smarter team in Tampa. Last season, Pham was worth 1.4 WAR in San Diego, posting a 103 OPS+. He’s done nothing but hit in the past, though, with a 120 OPS+ in (where else?) Tampa back in 2019, following a ridiculous 194 mark in 39 games after the Rays freed him from the Cardinals the previous year. In this instance, Pham is our insurance for a Judge injury or a Gallo disaster. You could do much worse.

The Phillies or Red Sox will get Kyle Schwarber. If the Sox pass on Schwarber, they’ll nab Suzuki — they didn’t just create an outfield hole for no reason. New York will be content to fill in the gaps here, even though they should probably have gone bigger for a starting center fielder. With Hicks under contract through 2056, though, that was never going to happen just yet.

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