Yankees: Evaluating 5 free agent starting pitching candidates

This year’s MLB playoffs and World Series demonstrated how much of an advantage it still is to have superb starting pitchers who can consistently eat up innings in games. Both the Braves and Astros made it to the mountaintop without this advantage whatsoever; neither had a defined No. 3 starter by the end of the series, and Tyler Matzek was forced to pitch nearly everyday.

If the Yankees are able to pair even adequate offense with a truly elite and deep rotation, they’ll be considered World Series favorites again by next season — and with Matt Blake at the helm, they’re not so far away.

As we saw this past season, the Yankees lacked a second elite starting pitcher. While Gerrit Cole was the anchor for the rotation, Nestor Cortes Jr., Jordan Montgomery, and Jameson Taillon were satisfactory in filling gaps, but couldn’t take the reins for longer than a month.

After completing his rehab following Tommy John surgery, Luis Severino pitched well and will likely be slotted into the second or third position among the starters next season — but how long can we count on him to stay healthy? If the Bronx Bombers hope to make the playoffs again and go deep into the October, they will need another outstanding pitcher equal to Severino.

There are no “Gerrit Coles” among the free agents this year. However, there is a small group of talented hurlers in the free-agent market, and any one of them could potentially solidify the team’s starting pitching.

The Yankees could target these 5 free agent starting pitchers.

Below we identify and discuss in no particular order the possible top free agent starting pitching candidates which the Yankees should consider pursuing to bolster their rotation. (The age indicates how old someone will be on opening day.)

5. Marcus Stroman (Age 30)

In 2021, Marcus Stroman (New York Mets) pitched 179 innings and earned a 3.02 ERA, a 133 ERA+, a 3.49 FIP, a 21.7 percent whiff rate, and a low six percent walk rate (2.2 walks per nine innings). While he doesn’t blow batters away, he is crafty and skilled at getting them to chase balls outside the strike zone. He also limits home runs and induces ground balls.

Stroman is adept at burning up innings when he pitches. This past season, he threw at least five full innings in 29 of his 33 starts. Only Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler and Los Angeles Dodgers studs Walker Buehler and Julio Urías exceeded that number in the NL. Stroman is arguably at the peak of his career.

Stroman accepted a qualifying offer in 2020. He is therefore ineligible to receive one this offseason for next year, and will have no draft-pick compensation attached to his signing by another club. This makes him an even more attractive free agent acquisition.

4. Kevin Gausman (Age 31)

Like Stroman, Kevin Gausman (San Francisco Giants) previously accepted a qualifying offer and is ineligible to receive one this year. The Giants extended an $18.9 million qualifying offer to him last offseason, which surprised many analysts.

Obviously, the team knew what it was doing because Gausman had an excellent pitching record in 2021. He had a 2.81 ERA, a 3.00 FIP, a 145 ERA+, and a 1.04 WHIP in 192 innings. In addition, he had a 10.6 K/9 and a 2.3 BB/9 in 33 starts. The Giants are likely to pull out all the stops to retain him.

Similar to Stroman, Gausman played last year after accepting the Giants’ qualifying offer. Thus, he has no draft-pick compensation attached to his acquisition. This is value added and will help make him a much sought-after free agent during this offseason.

3. Robbie Ray (Age 30)

Before the 2021 season with the Toronto Blue Jays, Robbie Ray had an up and down pitching career with the Detroit Tigers and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Prior to 2021, his best year was in 2017 when he was 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, 218 strikeouts in 162 innings, and a 5.0 WAR with the Diamondbacks. His performance was lackluster in other years, punctuated by walk-prone episodes.

However, Ray had a Cy Young-type season in 2021 with an AL-best 2.84 ERA, 154 ERA+, 248 strikeouts, and a 1.04 WHIP in 193.1 innings. He finally corrected his control problems that had long kept him from becoming a truly elite pitcher this past season. Ray’s 2.4 walks per nine innings in 2021 were much better than his career average of 4.3 walks per nine innings.

Ray finished the season with an impressive 6.7 WAR. He is clearly the top free agent starting pitcher on the market this offseason.

Ray has received a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays for $18.4 million (this year’s set amount). We think he will likely reject this bid and want to leverage his terrific performance in 2021 to pursue a lucrative, multi-year contract. Based on his performance this past season, we expect several teams will want to acquire him and that he will not come cheap.

If the Yankees decide to open their vault, aggressively pursue Ray, and sign him, they will get an excellent complement to Cole, also a Cy Young Award candidate this year. Assuming that Ray continues to pitch exceptionally well, the Bombers will have a premier starting rotation for several years to come.