Yankees: Evaluating 5 free agent starting pitching candidates

5. Marcus Stroman (Age 30)

In 2021, Marcus Stroman (New York Mets) pitched 179 innings and earned a 3.02 ERA, a 133 ERA+, a 3.49 FIP, a 21.7 percent whiff rate, and a low six percent walk rate (2.2 walks per nine innings). While he doesn’t blow batters away, he is crafty and skilled at getting them to chase balls outside the strike zone. He also limits home runs and induces ground balls.

Stroman is adept at burning up innings when he pitches. This past season, he threw at least five full innings in 29 of his 33 starts. Only Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler and Los Angeles Dodgers studs Walker Buehler and Julio Urías exceeded that number in the NL. Stroman is arguably at the peak of his career.

Stroman accepted a qualifying offer in 2020. He is therefore ineligible to receive one this offseason for next year, and will have no draft-pick compensation attached to his signing by another club. This makes him an even more attractive free agent acquisition.

4. Kevin Gausman (Age 31)

Like Stroman, Kevin Gausman (San Francisco Giants) previously accepted a qualifying offer and is ineligible to receive one this year. The Giants extended an $18.9 million qualifying offer to him last offseason, which surprised many analysts.

Obviously, the team knew what it was doing because Gausman had an excellent pitching record in 2021. He had a 2.81 ERA, a 3.00 FIP, a 145 ERA+, and a 1.04 WHIP in 192 innings. In addition, he had a 10.6 K/9 and a 2.3 BB/9 in 33 starts. The Giants are likely to pull out all the stops to retain him.

Similar to Stroman, Gausman played last year after accepting the Giants’ qualifying offer. Thus, he has no draft-pick compensation attached to his acquisition. This is value added and will help make him a much sought-after free agent during this offseason.

3. Robbie Ray (Age 30)

Before the 2021 season with the Toronto Blue Jays, Robbie Ray had an up and down pitching career with the Detroit Tigers and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Prior to 2021, his best year was in 2017 when he was 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, 218 strikeouts in 162 innings, and a 5.0 WAR with the Diamondbacks. His performance was lackluster in other years, punctuated by walk-prone episodes.

However, Ray had a Cy Young-type season in 2021 with an AL-best 2.84 ERA, 154 ERA+, 248 strikeouts, and a 1.04 WHIP in 193.1 innings. He finally corrected his control problems that had long kept him from becoming a truly elite pitcher this past season. Ray’s 2.4 walks per nine innings in 2021 were much better than his career average of 4.3 walks per nine innings.

Ray finished the season with an impressive 6.7 WAR. He is clearly the top free agent starting pitcher on the market this offseason.

Ray has received a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays for $18.4 million (this year’s set amount). We think he will likely reject this bid and want to leverage his terrific performance in 2021 to pursue a lucrative, multi-year contract. Based on his performance this past season, we expect several teams will want to acquire him and that he will not come cheap.

If the Yankees decide to open their vault, aggressively pursue Ray, and sign him, they will get an excellent complement to Cole, also a Cy Young Award candidate this year. Assuming that Ray continues to pitch exceptionally well, the Bombers will have a premier starting rotation for several years to come.

The Risks: Noah Syndergaard and Justin Verlander

Noah Syndergaard (RHP, age 29) and Justin Verlander (RHP, age 39) are also on the market this offseason.

The New York Mets and Houston Astros have extended qualifying offers to Syndergaard and Verlander, respectively. It is uncertain whether they will accept the salary proposals at this point. They have until Nov. 17 to decide.

Both pitchers are recovering from Tommy John surgery, and teams will be unlikely to offer them (especially Verlander, given his age) lucrative, long-term contracts. Instead, we should expect to see teams offering incentive-laden, goal-oriented arrangements to these two pitchers given the risks involved.

The qualifying offers by the Mets and Astros reflect their confidence that the two pitchers will rebound from their injuries and continue to pitch well. Syndergaard threw one inning in two games in September. Verlander held a pitching exhibition for a large number of MLB teams (including the Yankees) on Monday. It was reported that the velocity of his 25 pitches ranged between 94 and 97 MPH.

If the Yankees feel daring this offseason, they may want to take a chance on Syndergaard instead of Verlander.

Syndergaard is still relatively young and should bounce back from his surgery rather well. He has pitched effectively for the Mets in previous years, and he could be a valuable addition to the Yanks’ starting rotation.

Verlander, in contrast, is at the end of his career. He would be a considerable risk in terms of injury recovery and expected immediate performance.

Of course, the Yanks do not have an unlimited budget, and they are already carrying the enormous salaries of Giancarlo Stanton and Gerrit Cole (and eventually Aaron Judge). The team has competing needs (e.g., shortstop, center field, relief pitching, and catcher). Priorities will have to be set, and hard decisions will have to be made.

For instance, what if the overall cost of signing both Syndergaard and Verlander is significantly less than the cost of signing Ray alone to a long-term, expensive contract in terms of AAV? Should they do this?

Finally, it is hard to predict the contents of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and the players and how new policies and rules will affect the free agent market and team expenditures. Even then, the Yanks are one of the highest valued sports franchises globally, and they certainly can afford to spend more money than they have in the recent past.