Yankees: Predicting who’s gone in MLB trade deadline sell-off

With the July 30 MLB trade deadline looming, most Yankees beat writers have assumed that the team will most likely be buyers rather than sellers in the market. Baseball analysts such as Jim Bowden, Matt Meyers, Mark Feins, and Jon Paul Morosi, for example, echo this sentiment.

Also, manager Aaron Boone, GM Brian Cashman, and owner Hal Steinbrenner have strongly intimated that the Yanks will indeed be buyers and not sellers. They believe that the team is still in the playoff hunt, and they feel that they have the established players to configure desirable trade packages.

The club also has several attractive prospects they can barter. However, the Yanks do not have a “can’t miss” number one pick who could be dangled as tantalizing trade bait.

Therefore, any major trade deal will likely have to include more than one of their solid prospects, along with current established players, to increase the overall value of a package and land a superb player or two who can contribute immediately.

Despite great anticipation at the beginning of the season, fans have been extremely frustrated with how poorly the Yanks have performed, and for good reason.

Their middling record would be acceptable if the Bombers were in a rebuilding mode (like the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles) in 2021. Instead, the club began the season as a solid bet to reach the playoffs and the World Series. This is unlikely to happen unless talented reinforcements arrive.

While the starting and relief pitching has been surprisingly fine overall, major offensive indicators reveal a struggling team. The Boys from the Bronx are 16th in batting average, 17th in hits per game (predominantly singles), and ninth in home runs per game (1.30).

Even worse, the Savages are last in the MLB in doubles per game (1.19) and 28th in RBI per game (3.68). After Sunday’s game against the Boston Red Sox, which they embarrassingly lost 9-2, they possessed an extremely disappointing -4 run differential.

Perhaps the most surprising and painful shortcoming we all have witnessed this season is the inability of the once-powerful offensive Yankees to drive in runners in scoring position. With RISP, the team has a .216 BA (29th), .304 SLG (30th), .627 OPS (29th), 11 HR (27th), 160 RBI (30th), and GIDP (the most). The paucity of home runs with RISP is a killer. Ouch. Enough said.

The Bombers will have to part with both prospects and established players if they hope to acquire a high level of talent and improve immediately. Below I identify which Yankee players are safe (at least for now) and will remain, which players have a 50-50 chance of being traded, who most likely will be let go, and finally, which prospects are likely to be included in trade negotiations or retained and promoted as possible replacements for current players.

Yankees Trade Possibilities: The Untouchables

The easiest list to comprise is who will probably remain with the club based on their performance thus far and the likelihood they will continue to play at a high level in the future. This list includes Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber, Jordan Montgomery, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Loaisiga, Lucas Luetge, Darren O’Day, Nestor Cortes, Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, Gio Urshela, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton.

I was not entirely sure about placing three players among this group of “untouchable” Yankees.

While Montgomery is not quite in the same league as Cole and Kluber, I think he has earned the third spot in the Yankee starting rotation. In early June 2018, Monty had Tommy John surgery and only pitched four innings in 2019. During the five years he has been with the Yanks, he has gone 16-12 with a 4.12 ERA. Monty has pitched 312.2 innings, struck out 299 batters, and walked 95 hitters. He has an ERA+ of 106 and a FIP of 3.91.

Thus far this year, Montgomery is 3-2 with a 4.06 ERA. In 82 innings, he has struck out 80 batters and walked 23. Importantly, he is the only left-handed starting pitcher — and good left-handed starting pitchers are a rare breed. Because of this and his relatively good pitching record, I included him on the safe list.

As we know, Luetge has previously not pitched in the major leagues since 2015. As one of the “go-to guys” in Manager Boone’s bullpen, the lefthander has thrown 39.1 innings, struck out 41 batters, walked only six hitters, and has an impressive 2.52 ERA. He is a composed relief pitcher who costs the Yankees relatively little and won’t become a free agent until 2025. Cashman would be nuts to trade him.

Finally, I included Stanton on the “untouchable” list because his salary is exceptionally high, and it is unlikely that the Yanks could find another club to take him and his full cost. For that reason, he won’t be traded, and he will probably spend the rest of his career – whether we like it or not – as a designated hitter earning a lot of money in New York.

Possibilities to move him might open up in the future if the National League adopts the designated hitter rule.

Yankees Trade Possibilities: On the Bubble

Yankees on the bubble have a 50-50 chance of being traded before the July 30 deadline. These players include Jameson Taillon, Domingo German, Michael King, Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Justin Wilson, Wandy Peralta, Gary Sánchez, Kyle Higashioka, Rougned Odor, Tyler Wade, and Aaron Hicks. If the Bronx Bombers have the opportunity to trade for a first-class starter at a critical position, these individuals will most likely be involved in such a trade. One or more prospects might be included as well.

Britton is well paid and has spent a considerable amount of time on the IL this year. The Yanks can save about $6 million if they trade him before July 30 (the team has an option for 2022). He is now expendable due to the addition of lefties Cortes, Luetge, and Peralta, and O’Day’s added presence. Further, Loaisiga is now well positioned to take Britton’s place in the eighth inning as the setup man for Chapman. The Yankees wouldn’t pay a hefty price for Adam Ottavino, so why would they do so for Britton?

The Yankees could trade either Sánchez or Higashioka but very unlikely both. While Sánchez is hitting well at this point in time, he continues to frequently strike out and, overall, has been inconsistent in the batter’s box this year (and in 2020). If the recent past is any indication, the next prolonged slump is just around the corner. In his case, it is better to sell high.

Sánchez’s defense has improved, but not that much. He often produces runs in the batter’s box but then has them canceled out because of a passed ball, an error, or a mistake on the base path. If the Yanks keep Sánchez, then Higgy could be part of a trade, assuming that the team can replace him with another backup behind the plate, yet I believe it will be difficult to replace him with equal talent and at a similar low cost (about $600,000 in salary).

In my opinion, the fact that the two best and experienced starting pitchers would rather throw to Higashioka instead of the Kraken is a big, bright red flag for the club and all of us.

Although extremely hard to operationalize and measure, Sánchez’s pitch calling strategy may be significantly inferior to Higgy’s pitch selection approach. Frankly, one has to wonder whether Montgomery, Taillon, and German would be pitching more effectively if Higgy was almost always behind the plate when they are on the mound. This may be costing the Yanks games (especially close ones), though of course Sánchez’s offense has been monstrously important during this recent run.

Retaining Sánchez will not be cheap for the Bombers as time goes on, and they better be sure he will be worth the money if they decide to keep him long-term on the club. Otherwise, trading him now while his value is high for someone who can contribute immediately in return is the way to go.

Hicks has been frequently on the IL, often for extended periods (like now). The Yanks need to acquire a young, elite center fielder as soon as possible, someone like the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte or the Orioles’ Cedric Mullins.

Though extremely difficult, trading Hicks would be a step in the right direction, even if the Yanks don’t get a center fielder in return. They have other players they can trade for a new center fielder (or a new catcher).

Yankees Trade Possibilities: Prospects and Replacements

The Yanks have enough good prospects in the minor leagues and on their 40-man roster who could be an essential part of a valuable trade package or who themselves could join the team next year. Albert Abreu, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, and Nick Nelson could be included in trade negotiations for position players with other clubs on the pitching side. Clarke Schmidt, who has been injured, has shown great promise as a starting pitcher.

Unfortunately, Deivi Garcia, who has already started games for the Bombers and who it was thought might be part of the starting rotation this year, has regressed and has not performed well on the mound in Triple-A. He is now working hard to return to his old form.

Whether and if so to what extent the Yanks will want to part with either Schmidt or Garcia is uncertain, since either one or both might be future starting pitchers for the Boys from the Bronx. Neither one appears to have reached his full potential.

Nick Nelson auditioned for the bullpen earlier this season after impressing the Yankees in early stints as a relief pitcher. However, he did not pitch well and has been down in the minor leagues attempting to develop more command of his pitches.

Chris Gittens, who ably subbed for Voit when he was recently on the IL, has impressed everyone with his power. He hits and also fields well. However, the person who hit the most home runs in MLB last year is currently occupying that position and will likely be ensconced there for a long time. Thus, Gittens is a prime candidate for inclusion in a trade package this July.

Oswald Peraza is receiving high marks for his hitting and defense at shortstop. He just turned 21 on June 15, and he is probably not ready to play shortstop just yet.

However, if Torres is traded, Urshela could play shortstop while Peraza sharpens his offensive and defensive tools. Of course, the Yanks also could pursue one of the star shortstops in free agency this offseason. If they do, then Peraza would be a very valuable trade commodity.

Estevan Florial could inherit Hicks’ position in center field, which he may soon do. This will depend on whether the Yanks successfully trade for a center fielder in July, in which case he could be part of the trade deal.

Finally, two players who are not on the 40-man roster have recently been raking. Hoy Jun Park and Trey Amburgey have lit up the minor leagues playing for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRaiders.

Park, a middle infielder who has spent some time playing center field, is leading Triple-A with an impressive 1.134 OPS. He has seven home runs, 33 runs scored, and 23 RBI in 30 games.

At the same time, Amburgey has produced a .356/.407/.663 slash line, which includes six home runs and 34 RBI in 27 games. I saw him play close up in Spring Training in 2019 and 2020, and I was already impressed with his abilities then.

Park and Amburgey are performing as well as several of the elite prospects in minor league baseball and can help the Bombers if promoted to the majors as replacements for either Odor or Wade (Park) and either Andújar, Frazier, Gardner, or Hicks (Amburgey).

The sticky part (if you search me) is that neither player is on the 40-man roster, and two slots would have to become available for them to become part of the Yankees team roster. This would be difficult for Boone and Cashman to navigate, since their promotions would require very tough choices. Possible openings might occur via trades before the end of the July deadline, providing the Bombers some flexibility to elevate them and improve the team.

The Bronx Bombers have glaring deficiencies in their lineup, including too many right handed hitters. Let’s hope that they can address all or some of them before the trade deadline.

Of course, as we have recently seen, the Yanks have allowed terrific young players to get away. They need to be extra careful to avoid making similar mistakes in the future. If they make one or two intelligent trades, it will increase their chances of making the playoffs.

Otherwise, Yankee fans should brace themselves for a long, drawn-out, and painful second half of the season!