Yankees: 3 biggest X-factors for 2021 season
The New York Yankees‘ 2021 season has almost arrived. Really. Seriously.
It begins in earnest next week, at which point we’ll be able to move on from speculative question-asking to real-world question-answering. Which’ll feel good. Because even if some of the answers are the exact opposite of what we need, at least we’ll know!
As it stands, the Yankees have battled a string of injuries this spring, which have mostly flown under the radar since they’re par for the course by now. Still, the team has persevered to an excellent spring record, which … say what you will, but we’d rather people perform well than struggle.
Besides, much of the team’s success has been thanks to contributions from the pitching staff as a whole, against both starters and backups. You don’t have to bend over backwards to describe to an onlooker why that actually feels nice.
Unlike in years past, this Yankees team appears to have a ceiling matched by their depth. In most simulators, where the season is played digitally, they’ll probably be able to weather an injury storm and make the World Series.
In order to finish the job for real? They’ll need positive answers to the following three questionable spots. These X-Factors could result in the Bombers matching their potential, or falling just short. And if all three of these spots end up being black holes instead of positives, they might be in more trouble than we’re currently accounting for.
These 3 Yankees X-Factors could help determine the 2021 season.
3. Can Nick Nelson/Jonathan Loaisiga Handle High Leverage?
Against the Yankees’ better designs, they’re now down two of the five high-leverage relievers they intended to carry when Opening Day arrived, having lost both Zack Britton and Justin Wilson.
Britton’s elbow chips caused him to dip early from the bullpen mix, and Wilson’s shoulder status will have him delayed to begin the season, so we certainly shouldn’t count on him early.
Suddenly, New York’s luxury-laden bullpen is going to be counting on a few spring standouts to carry their performances into the regular season.
With Wilson/O’Day/Britton/Green/Chapman all healthy, Jonathan Loaisiga and Nick Nelson would’ve had carte blanche to figure things out in innings five-through-eight of a blowout (win or loss). After the departure of two of those veterans? They’ll be pressed into much different action in the season’s first month or two.
This is not to cry doom about New York’s bullpen picture; it’s to highlight a necessary role change that could shift the Yankees in one of two directions.
If Nelson and Loaisiga can’t maintain their decisiveness in their new roles, the bullpen backslides. If they look like high-leverage beasts right away, this team has leveled up, and their healthy bullpen will now roll seven deep, Rays-style.
2. What is Jameson Taillon?
Critics and fans alike agree: Jameson Taillon, with the swing-and-miss stuff he’s displayed on the comeback trail and newer, more compact delivery, could become the Yankees’ No. 2 starter by year’s end.
Critics agree, though, that the pitch count issue has to be solved. Taillon, once again, struggled to finish off hitters in his most recent outing against the Philadelphia Phillies, after struggling with his command in a prior outing against Detroit.
Essentially, there’s a lot to love here and a lot of swing-and-miss in his game already. But the difference between the Yankees having acquired a genuine running mate for Gerrit Cole and the possibility that all they have is a solid No. 3 who uses too many bullets too early in games is huge.
It doesn’t have to happen in April or May. But by the end of this season, the Yankees need to have someone they can hand the ball to for a Game 2 with full trust of the fan base and front office. Will it be Luis Severino? Probably not on his innings limit, with a potential bullpen role targeted for his second half. Corey Kluber? Most assessments say his results are ahead of his stuff this spring; we wouldn’t bank on it. Jordan Montgomery’s built for the back half of a rotation, and that’s OK.
The Yankees have far more reliable rotation depth than they’ve possessed in recent years, but we’re not sure if any one of Cole’s running mates qualifies as an unquestioned second banana. If Taillon asserts himself by mid-season, that certainly changes the equation.
1. That Whole Gary Sanchez Thing
Either the Yankees have an All-Star starter behind the plate or they have one of the biggest messes in the game behind the plate. As we’ve learned these past few years, there is no in-between.
Isn’t that fun?
Seriously. There is absolutely a world in which every column penned preseason about alternate fits and non-tenders and rising arbitration costs is rendered irrelevant by a full season in which a rejuvenated Gary Sanchez hits .270 with 35 homers. It isn’t hard to see.
There’s also a world where Sanchez hits for his trademark power with a .190 average, the fan base screams, and the team realizes that this isn’t a sustainable way of life as his price tag rises.
And there’s almost no middle ground. Or, at least, we haven’t witnessed it yet. If that level of narrative variance doesn’t scream “X-factor,” then we’re not sure what does.
Sanchez acolytes are largely correct. At every point of his Yankees career, he was a better option than Austin Romine. He’s a better starter than Kyle Higashioka. As ghastly as his 2020 was, it was capped by a playoff homer and all-important ninth-inning sac fly in the Wild Card round. Much of the “Higashioka vs. Sanchez” discourse was based on vibes, and that’s no way to go through life.
But the World Series-aspiring Yankees can’t commit long-term to someone who lives below the Mendoza line at a premium position like this, even though the market is somewhat dry. For at least one more year, this is Sanchez’s job, and he can grab the reins or fall back in the pecking order.
Happy medium? Doubtful.