Yankees: Who will rule New York City in 2021, Yankees or Mets?

With Spring Training underway, this is an excellent time to evaluate and compare the two rival New York City MLB teams, the Yankees and the Mets. Which team will be better in 2021?

Since the Mets’ birth in 1962, they’ve battled with the Yankees to earn New York baseball fans’ loyalty. While the Bombers have consistently been the more successful team and have managed to maintain and enlarge their fan base, there were certain times when the Mets were undeniably the better team.

Today, the Mets continue to act like that pesky new kid on the block trying to one-up their elder and more renowned competitor.

With this in mind, which team is likely to end the 2021 MLB season with the better record? Can both of them make it to the playoffs? What about the World Series? Is there a chance they could meet in the Fall Classic?

Entering the offseason, both teams found themselves in entirely different positions. While the Yanks had a great start to the shortened 2020 season, the team petered out at the end because of injuries to key players.

Still, the Bombers managed to limp to the playoffs with a 33-27 record and impressively knock off the Cleveland Indians. However, losing to the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS was nothing short of embarrassing.

On paper, the Yanks were a much better team than the Rays, their bitter American League East rival. Yet, injuries during the shortened season and underperformance in some cases kept them from reaching the top of the mountain. With memories of the 2009 World Series fading, Yankees fans were disappointed that their team failed to advance all the way through the playoffs.

The Mets played below their potential and struggled throughout the abbreviated season. Also, losing their No. 2 starter Noah Syndergaard to Tommy John surgery in late March was a significant blow. (By coincidence, Luis Severino, Syndergaard’s counterpart in the Mets’ rotation, underwent the same operation the previous month.) As a result, the club finished with a dismal 26-34 record under rookie manager Luis Rojas, tied with the Washington Nationals at the bottom of the National League East.

But the bad memory of the 2020 season was immediately forgotten when MLB approved the team’s purchase by multi-billionaire hedge-fund magnate Steve Cohen in late October. He vowed to improve the club and turn things around. Mets fans were now excited and hopeful.

In addition to acquiring an owner with deep pockets, the Mets did not have to pay 38-year-old Robinson Cano’s annual $24 million salary in 2021 due to his PED suspension. Because of Cano’s trade agreement, the Seattle Mariners also had to pay the Mets $4 million as a partial salary offset for the 2021 season. I doubt tears were shed. In fact, Mets’ brass probably celebrated this outcome in their executive suites.

Like most MLB teams, the Yankees’ owners reported a substantial financial loss due to the pandemic. They entered the postseason wanting to stay under the luxury salary threshold despite a need to improve the roster in some significant areas.

This proved to be a difficult challenge given the team’s already high player salaries and the need to re-sign free agent DJ LeMahieu to a well-deserved multi-year contract. After putting Yankee fans through a great deal of angst, the Yanks were, fortunately, able to sign their MVP to a team-friendly, multi-year contract ($90 million guaranteed over six years).

So let’s dive in, look at the offseasons both of these teams had, and determine who will rule New York in 2021.

Could the Mets contend for a World Series in 2021?

Except for the San Diego Padres and the Chicago White Sox, the Mets improved their ball club the most during the offseason compared to the rest of the league. As a result, most analysts agree that the Padres and Mets have narrowed the quality gap between them and the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League.

While the Dodgers are still favored to reach the World Series and repeat, don’t be surprised if the team eventually regrets spending a lot of money on Trevor Bauer and Justin Turner. Bauer has yet to prove his worth consistently and a Turner regression wouldn’t be surprising at all.

Along with the usual minor player personnel moves during the offseason, the Mets made several momentous transactions heading into 2021. They traded shortstop Francisco Lindor, who’s arguably the best in MLB at his position, and pitcher Carlos Carrasco, who provides tremendous depth. New York also struck a deal with the Padres for pitcher Joey Lucchesi.

In addition to adding Lindor and Carrasco, the Mets signed James McCann (the second-best catcher on the market this offseason) and hurlers Trevor May and Taijuan Walker. The Mets were also able to persuade starting pitcher Marcus Stroman to accept the team’s qualifying offer, which gives them an elite rotation that can rival the Dodgers’.

The team recently signed Jonathan Villar, who can play every infield position as well as center field, which gives them tremendous versatility off the bench. Other notable additions include Albert Almora, Aaron Loup and Jose Martinez.

Cohen may not have signed any big ticket free agents, but he made one blockbuster trade and provided aid to areas of the roster that badly needed it. One could argue depth is more important than star power, especially since the Mets already have a number of studs ready to rock in 2021.

Now, for the Yanks…

Recent in-depth empirical comparisons between the Yanks and the Mets have been conducted by reputable sports analytic organizations prior to entering the 2021 season. Nearly all of these evaluations indicate that the Yanks are better than the Mets, overall, and that the Yanks will perform better than their rivals in Queens during the upcoming season.

For example, Fangraphs gives the Bombers a 91.6% chance of making it to the postseason and the Mets an 81.2% probability.

Similarly, BetMGM awarded the Yanks +600 odds (second only behind the Dodgers, who receive a +400) for reaching the World Series. The Mets are sixth on the list of teams likely to participate in the fall classic with a +1200 mark.

As an exception, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA predicts that the Bombers and the Mets will finish the season with nearly identical won-loss records (97-65 and 96-66, respectively). However, many analysts disagree with the PECOTA MLB team assessments and prognostications for 2021.

Finally, USA Today has the Yanks finishing the 2021 season with a 94-68 record with the Mets at 86-76.

While the Mets had a higher team batting average than the Yanks in 2020 (.272 versus .247), the Yanks hit more home runs (94) and RBI (301) than the Mets (86 and 278, respectively) in the shortened season. As most Yankees fans can attest, the Bombers are never out of a game until the last out is recorded.

Still, the additions of Lindor, McCann, and other position players during the offseason should improve the Mets’ run production compared to 2020.

Most of the reputable composite assessments of the 30 MLB teams indicate that the Yanks are the better club heading into the 2021 season. This is primarily because the Yanks, with the retention of LeMahieu, will basically have the same monster lineup as last year. The batters from the Bronx are again expected to slug a lot of home runs and score many runs against their American League competitors in 2021.

Also, in 2020, the Yanks’ pitching staff had a lower team ERA (4.35) than the Mets’ hurlers (4.98). Similarly, the Yanks’ bullpen produced more saves than the Mets’ bullpen (14 versus 11). Since both clubs employed the DH in 2020, the comparisons are accurate indicators of how each pitching staff fared last season and may explain preseason predictions of how the two teams will play in 2021.

With all that said, the Bombers still have a significant problem behind the plate. Gary Sanchez has a long way to go to dispel what’s happened the last three seasons, plus he has to prove if he can remain healthy for an entire campaign. He’s yet to play in more than 122 games in a single year.

On a brighter note, the Yanks decided to reorganize their starting pitching staff during the offseason. If Kluber and Taillon, along with Gerrit Cole, pitch effectively in 2021, the Yanks should achieve at least the same level of success during the regular season as in the past two years. In fact, if these hurlers stay relatively healthy and perform to their full potential, reaching the World Series and winning it all is a real possibility. But if these hurlers falter and the team’s young pitchers cannot fill the gap, it could be a long year.

Adding Wilson and O’Day should help maintain the team’s bullpen strength despite the losses of Ottavino and Kahnle during the offseason.

The Mets’ pitching staff is a reverse image of the Yanks pitching staff going into the 2021 season. With Syndergaard not expected back until June, the Mets helped themselves by adding both Carrasco and Taijuan Walker to their already well-anchored and deep starting rotation.

Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom should again be in top form, and he is likely to win more games in 2021 with an improved offense behind him.

However, the Mets’ bullpen still remains a question mark, though the addition of May should help. The relief corps could turn out to be the club’s Achilles heel and limit their ability to make the playoffs or perform well if they were to get there.

It’s also worth noting that Boone has more experience than Rojas as a big-league manager, which gives the Bombers a distinct advantage during a full regular season and certainly in the playoffs.

Despite the flaws that both the Yanks and Mets possess, I wouldn’t be surprised if both clubs play well in 2021 and make the playoffs within their respective leagues. In fact, given how much the Mets have improved during the offseason, don’t be surprised if we have – dare I say – another subway series!

But right now, the Yankees are the better team and it’s up to the Mets to disprove that in 2021.

Yankees: Marcus Stroman’s weird answer proves he’s preoccupied with NYY

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