Yankees: Who will rule New York City in 2021, Yankees or Mets?

With Spring Training underway, this is an excellent time to evaluate and compare the two rival New York City MLB teams, the Yankees and the Mets. Which team will be better in 2021?

Since the Mets’ birth in 1962, they’ve battled with the Yankees to earn New York baseball fans’ loyalty. While the Bombers have consistently been the more successful team and have managed to maintain and enlarge their fan base, there were certain times when the Mets were undeniably the better team.

Today, the Mets continue to act like that pesky new kid on the block trying to one-up their elder and more renowned competitor.

With this in mind, which team is likely to end the 2021 MLB season with the better record? Can both of them make it to the playoffs? What about the World Series? Is there a chance they could meet in the Fall Classic?

Entering the offseason, both teams found themselves in entirely different positions. While the Yanks had a great start to the shortened 2020 season, the team petered out at the end because of injuries to key players.

Still, the Bombers managed to limp to the playoffs with a 33-27 record and impressively knock off the Cleveland Indians. However, losing to the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS was nothing short of embarrassing.

On paper, the Yanks were a much better team than the Rays, their bitter American League East rival. Yet, injuries during the shortened season and underperformance in some cases kept them from reaching the top of the mountain. With memories of the 2009 World Series fading, Yankees fans were disappointed that their team failed to advance all the way through the playoffs.

The Mets played below their potential and struggled throughout the abbreviated season. Also, losing their No. 2 starter Noah Syndergaard to Tommy John surgery in late March was a significant blow. (By coincidence, Luis Severino, Syndergaard’s counterpart in the Mets’ rotation, underwent the same operation the previous month.) As a result, the club finished with a dismal 26-34 record under rookie manager Luis Rojas, tied with the Washington Nationals at the bottom of the National League East.

But the bad memory of the 2020 season was immediately forgotten when MLB approved the team’s purchase by multi-billionaire hedge-fund magnate Steve Cohen in late October. He vowed to improve the club and turn things around. Mets fans were now excited and hopeful.

In addition to acquiring an owner with deep pockets, the Mets did not have to pay 38-year-old Robinson Cano’s annual $24 million salary in 2021 due to his PED suspension. Because of Cano’s trade agreement, the Seattle Mariners also had to pay the Mets $4 million as a partial salary offset for the 2021 season. I doubt tears were shed. In fact, Mets’ brass probably celebrated this outcome in their executive suites.

Like most MLB teams, the Yankees’ owners reported a substantial financial loss due to the pandemic. They entered the postseason wanting to stay under the luxury salary threshold despite a need to improve the roster in some significant areas.

This proved to be a difficult challenge given the team’s already high player salaries and the need to re-sign free agent DJ LeMahieu to a well-deserved multi-year contract. After putting Yankee fans through a great deal of angst, the Yanks were, fortunately, able to sign their MVP to a team-friendly, multi-year contract ($90 million guaranteed over six years).

So let’s dive in, look at the offseasons both of these teams had, and determine who will rule New York in 2021.

The Yankees once again remain the favorites in the American League.

Given the Yanks’ self-imposed budget constraints, the team was remarkably able to upgrade the roster. During the offseason, the club let go three previous starting pitchers, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ, and James Paxton, reflecting a desire to reduce expenditures and move in a different direction.

To replace those guys, the Yanks signed former Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber and traded for Jameson Taillon in a deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both have dealt with injuries in the past, and it’s uncertain how well they will hold up during the entire regular season. Nonetheless, their ceilings remain extremely high.

Additionally, there’s an outside chance that Luis Severino will join the team in the middle of the season. But again, his effectiveness following surgery is largely unknown. And the fact that they’re relying on Domingo German to contribute in a big way is worrisome.

As for the bullpen, the Yankees traded relief pitcher Adam Ottavino and let go of Tommy Kahnle and Jonathan Holder. To address those holes, they signed Darren O’Day and Justin Wilson. We can assume they’ll rely on one of their younger arms to step up too.

But the most critical transaction the Bombers made during the offseason was retaining LeMahieu, the team’s best player, to maintain their stellar infield. As a result, all eyes will be on Gleyber Torres to take the next step as the team’s starting shortstop of the future.

As for other marginal moves, they traded for outfielder Greg Allen (speedster and lefty bat) and signed both Jay Bruce and Derek Dietrich to minor-league deals to provide some flexibility and pop on the left side of the plate. More high upside, flexibility and depth.

Oh, and Brett Gardner is back!

Recent in-depth empirical comparisons between the Yanks and the Mets have been conducted by reputable sports analytic organizations prior to entering the 2021 season. Nearly all of these evaluations indicate that the Yanks are better than the Mets, overall, and that the Yanks will perform better than their rivals in Queens during the upcoming season.

For example, Fangraphs gives the Bombers a 91.6% chance of making it to the postseason and the Mets an 81.2% probability.

Similarly, BetMGM awarded the Yanks +600 odds (second only behind the Dodgers, who receive a +400) for reaching the World Series. The Mets are sixth on the list of teams likely to participate in the fall classic with a +1200 mark.

As an exception, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA predicts that the Bombers and the Mets will finish the season with nearly identical won-loss records (97-65 and 96-66, respectively). However, many analysts disagree with the PECOTA MLB team assessments and prognostications for 2021.

Finally, USA Today has the Yanks finishing the 2021 season with a 94-68 record with the Mets at 86-76.

While the Mets had a higher team batting average than the Yanks in 2020 (.272 versus .247), the Yanks hit more home runs (94) and RBI (301) than the Mets (86 and 278, respectively) in the shortened season. As most Yankees fans can attest, the Bombers are never out of a game until the last out is recorded.

Still, the additions of Lindor, McCann, and other position players during the offseason should improve the Mets’ run production compared to 2020.

Most of the reputable composite assessments of the 30 MLB teams indicate that the Yanks are the better club heading into the 2021 season. This is primarily because the Yanks, with the retention of LeMahieu, will basically have the same monster lineup as last year. The batters from the Bronx are again expected to slug a lot of home runs and score many runs against their American League competitors in 2021.

Also, in 2020, the Yanks’ pitching staff had a lower team ERA (4.35) than the Mets’ hurlers (4.98). Similarly, the Yanks’ bullpen produced more saves than the Mets’ bullpen (14 versus 11). Since both clubs employed the DH in 2020, the comparisons are accurate indicators of how each pitching staff fared last season and may explain preseason predictions of how the two teams will play in 2021.

With all that said, the Bombers still have a significant problem behind the plate. Gary Sanchez has a long way to go to dispel what’s happened the last three seasons, plus he has to prove if he can remain healthy for an entire campaign. He’s yet to play in more than 122 games in a single year.

On a brighter note, the Yanks decided to reorganize their starting pitching staff during the offseason. If Kluber and Taillon, along with Gerrit Cole, pitch effectively in 2021, the Yanks should achieve at least the same level of success during the regular season as in the past two years. In fact, if these hurlers stay relatively healthy and perform to their full potential, reaching the World Series and winning it all is a real possibility. But if these hurlers falter and the team’s young pitchers cannot fill the gap, it could be a long year.

Adding Wilson and O’Day should help maintain the team’s bullpen strength despite the losses of Ottavino and Kahnle during the offseason.

The Mets’ pitching staff is a reverse image of the Yanks pitching staff going into the 2021 season. With Syndergaard not expected back until June, the Mets helped themselves by adding both Carrasco and Taijuan Walker to their already well-anchored and deep starting rotation.

Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom should again be in top form, and he is likely to win more games in 2021 with an improved offense behind him.

However, the Mets’ bullpen still remains a question mark, though the addition of May should help. The relief corps could turn out to be the club’s Achilles heel and limit their ability to make the playoffs or perform well if they were to get there.

It’s also worth noting that Boone has more experience than Rojas as a big-league manager, which gives the Bombers a distinct advantage during a full regular season and certainly in the playoffs.

Despite the flaws that both the Yanks and Mets possess, I wouldn’t be surprised if both clubs play well in 2021 and make the playoffs within their respective leagues. In fact, given how much the Mets have improved during the offseason, don’t be surprised if we have – dare I say – another subway series!

But right now, the Yankees are the better team and it’s up to the Mets to disprove that in 2021.

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