Yankees: Who will rule New York City in 2021, Yankees or Mets?

Could the Mets contend for a World Series in 2021?

Except for the San Diego Padres and the Chicago White Sox, the Mets improved their ball club the most during the offseason compared to the rest of the league. As a result, most analysts agree that the Padres and Mets have narrowed the quality gap between them and the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League.

While the Dodgers are still favored to reach the World Series and repeat, don’t be surprised if the team eventually regrets spending a lot of money on Trevor Bauer and Justin Turner. Bauer has yet to prove his worth consistently and a Turner regression wouldn’t be surprising at all.

Along with the usual minor player personnel moves during the offseason, the Mets made several momentous transactions heading into 2021. They traded shortstop Francisco Lindor, who’s arguably the best in MLB at his position, and pitcher Carlos Carrasco, who provides tremendous depth. New York also struck a deal with the Padres for pitcher Joey Lucchesi.

In addition to adding Lindor and Carrasco, the Mets signed James McCann (the second-best catcher on the market this offseason) and hurlers Trevor May and Taijuan Walker. The Mets were also able to persuade starting pitcher Marcus Stroman to accept the team’s qualifying offer, which gives them an elite rotation that can rival the Dodgers’.

The team recently signed Jonathan Villar, who can play every infield position as well as center field, which gives them tremendous versatility off the bench. Other notable additions include Albert Almora, Aaron Loup and Jose Martinez.

Cohen may not have signed any big ticket free agents, but he made one blockbuster trade and provided aid to areas of the roster that badly needed it. One could argue depth is more important than star power, especially since the Mets already have a number of studs ready to rock in 2021.

Now, for the Yanks…

The Yankees once again remain the favorites in the American League.

Given the Yanks’ self-imposed budget constraints, the team was remarkably able to upgrade the roster. During the offseason, the club let go three previous starting pitchers, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ, and James Paxton, reflecting a desire to reduce expenditures and move in a different direction.

To replace those guys, the Yanks signed former Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber and traded for Jameson Taillon in a deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both have dealt with injuries in the past, and it’s uncertain how well they will hold up during the entire regular season. Nonetheless, their ceilings remain extremely high.

Additionally, there’s an outside chance that Luis Severino will join the team in the middle of the season. But again, his effectiveness following surgery is largely unknown. And the fact that they’re relying on Domingo German to contribute in a big way is worrisome.

As for the bullpen, the Yankees traded relief pitcher Adam Ottavino and let go of Tommy Kahnle and Jonathan Holder. To address those holes, they signed Darren O’Day and Justin Wilson. We can assume they’ll rely on one of their younger arms to step up too.

But the most critical transaction the Bombers made during the offseason was retaining LeMahieu, the team’s best player, to maintain their stellar infield. As a result, all eyes will be on Gleyber Torres to take the next step as the team’s starting shortstop of the future.

As for other marginal moves, they traded for outfielder Greg Allen (speedster and lefty bat) and signed both Jay Bruce and Derek Dietrich to minor-league deals to provide some flexibility and pop on the left side of the plate. More high upside, flexibility and depth.

Oh, and Brett Gardner is back!

Recent in-depth empirical comparisons between the Yanks and the Mets have been conducted by reputable sports analytic organizations prior to entering the 2021 season. Nearly all of these evaluations indicate that the Yanks are better than the Mets, overall, and that the Yanks will perform better than their rivals in Queens during the upcoming season.

For example, Fangraphs gives the Bombers a 91.6% chance of making it to the postseason and the Mets an 81.2% probability.

Similarly, BetMGM awarded the Yanks +600 odds (second only behind the Dodgers, who receive a +400) for reaching the World Series. The Mets are sixth on the list of teams likely to participate in the fall classic with a +1200 mark.

As an exception, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA predicts that the Bombers and the Mets will finish the season with nearly identical won-loss records (97-65 and 96-66, respectively). However, many analysts disagree with the PECOTA MLB team assessments and prognostications for 2021.

Finally, USA Today has the Yanks finishing the 2021 season with a 94-68 record with the Mets at 86-76.

While the Mets had a higher team batting average than the Yanks in 2020 (.272 versus .247), the Yanks hit more home runs (94) and RBI (301) than the Mets (86 and 278, respectively) in the shortened season. As most Yankees fans can attest, the Bombers are never out of a game until the last out is recorded.

Still, the additions of Lindor, McCann, and other position players during the offseason should improve the Mets’ run production compared to 2020.

Most of the reputable composite assessments of the 30 MLB teams indicate that the Yanks are the better club heading into the 2021 season. This is primarily because the Yanks, with the retention of LeMahieu, will basically have the same monster lineup as last year. The batters from the Bronx are again expected to slug a lot of home runs and score many runs against their American League competitors in 2021.

Also, in 2020, the Yanks’ pitching staff had a lower team ERA (4.35) than the Mets’ hurlers (4.98). Similarly, the Yanks’ bullpen produced more saves than the Mets’ bullpen (14 versus 11). Since both clubs employed the DH in 2020, the comparisons are accurate indicators of how each pitching staff fared last season and may explain preseason predictions of how the two teams will play in 2021.

With all that said, the Bombers still have a significant problem behind the plate. Gary Sanchez has a long way to go to dispel what’s happened the last three seasons, plus he has to prove if he can remain healthy for an entire campaign. He’s yet to play in more than 122 games in a single year.

On a brighter note, the Yanks decided to reorganize their starting pitching staff during the offseason. If Kluber and Taillon, along with Gerrit Cole, pitch effectively in 2021, the Yanks should achieve at least the same level of success during the regular season as in the past two years. In fact, if these hurlers stay relatively healthy and perform to their full potential, reaching the World Series and winning it all is a real possibility. But if these hurlers falter and the team’s young pitchers cannot fill the gap, it could be a long year.

Adding Wilson and O’Day should help maintain the team’s bullpen strength despite the losses of Ottavino and Kahnle during the offseason.

The Mets’ pitching staff is a reverse image of the Yanks pitching staff going into the 2021 season. With Syndergaard not expected back until June, the Mets helped themselves by adding both Carrasco and Taijuan Walker to their already well-anchored and deep starting rotation.

Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom should again be in top form, and he is likely to win more games in 2021 with an improved offense behind him.

However, the Mets’ bullpen still remains a question mark, though the addition of May should help. The relief corps could turn out to be the club’s Achilles heel and limit their ability to make the playoffs or perform well if they were to get there.

It’s also worth noting that Boone has more experience than Rojas as a big-league manager, which gives the Bombers a distinct advantage during a full regular season and certainly in the playoffs.

Despite the flaws that both the Yanks and Mets possess, I wouldn’t be surprised if both clubs play well in 2021 and make the playoffs within their respective leagues. In fact, given how much the Mets have improved during the offseason, don’t be surprised if we have – dare I say – another subway series!

But right now, the Yankees are the better team and it’s up to the Mets to disprove that in 2021.

Yankees: Marcus Stroman’s weird answer proves he’s preoccupied with NYY

Is Mets starter Marcus Stroman thinking about the New York Yankees? No, not at all. Furthest thing from his mind. Never heard of baseball, actually.