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3 big free agents Yankees can target next offseason thanks to luxury tax

By Adam Weinrib |
WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 22: Max Scherzer #31 of the Washington Nationals pitches in the third inning during game one of a doubleheader baseball game against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on August 22, 2020 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 22: Max Scherzer #31 of the Washington Nationals pitches in the third inning during game one of a doubleheader baseball game against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on August 22, 2020 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
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The Yankees — if they WANT to — can sign large free agents next offseason after ducking under the luxury tax.

Bad news: the Yankees are completely unwilling to surpass the luxury tax threshold this offseason, preferring to throw an overload of risky rotation options at the wall during a year of Gerrit Cole’s prime.

Good news: this means they can technically spend big next offseason! If they’d like to! Which would be nice!

The Yankees will now, whether you like it or not (we don’t!) reset their tax rate — though it could all be for naught, seeing as the soon-to-come new CBA at the end of the 2021 season might shift every boundary in the book. Plus, the tax the Yankees would’ve paid this year would truly have been a drop in their earnings bucket regardless.

But we digress. We have to operate under the same assumptions that Hal Steinbrenner is intent on using as a crutch. And a risky offseason full of bounce-back bets is the way he’s chosen to approach 2020-21, while it’s far more likely he uses a season’s worth of profits and lesser-taxed spending to bring in some major reinforcements next year.

We’re not sure if the Yankees will be in the high-dollar shortstop market now that they’ve extended DJ LeMahieu and are rolling with Gleyber Torres (they probably won’t be?), so for now, we’ve laid out several other non-infield targets who’ll cost bigger bucks next offseason.

If the Yanks aren’t in these discussions, we’re going to have a problem.

Noah Syndergaard #34 of the New York Mets (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
Noah Syndergaard #34 of the New York Mets (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) /

3. Noah Syndergaard

Are the Yankees gearing up to sign Noah Syndergaard away from the Mets?

How much money does Steve Cohen want to invest in his rotation…really?

Especially post-GameStop?

By the hour, Trevor Bauer’s arrival in New York seems more certain, despite the recent stock market short squeeze chicanery, and the righty appears to have given up on the idea of maximizing his value via endless one-year contracts. It’s far more likely that Bauer ultimately signs a three- or four-year deal with an expensive AAV, and it’s also far more likely that Bauer signs that deal in Flushing.

That would leave Jacob deGrom in blue pinstripes through 2024 (team option), and probably Bauer as well, with both Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman hitting free agency following this season. 2021, on the surface, seems set up as a competition between the two arms to prove their value to their new owner, and it’s quite likely that if Cohen adds Bauer’s burden, he’ll retain the less expensive option once the campaign is over.

Syndergaard, an iconic Met since his 2015 debut season when he made a World Series start at the age of 22, is recovering from Tommy John surgery and should be available in late May or early June. That’ll give the 28-year-old plenty of time to prove he’s a more electric option than Stroman, won’t be prone to regression, and deserves the larger paycheck.

If the Yankees have more financial flexibility than their cross-town rivals next offseason, they should absolutely be eyeing Syndergaard, who’s yo-yo’d back and forth between trade rumors and stability so often these past few years we’ve lost count.

Let him keep his apartment keys and pay him to come pitch on the other side of town.

Max Scherzer of the Washington Nationals. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Max Scherzer of the Washington Nationals. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

2. Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer’s been our dream one-year Yankees candidate forever.

Should the Yankees have signed Max Scherzer long-term following the 2014 season when he first hit free agency? Obviously. Yes. This is an obvious yes.

But as that deal wraps up in Washington — one of the few lengthy pacts that worked — the Yankees should still take aim at Scherzer’s age-37 season on either a one- or two-year deal that blows the tax number out of the ocean.

$20 million annually for that level of gumption, stuff, and leadership? Extremely fine! Very fine.

Scherzer — a client of Eric Cressey, the Yankees’ strength and conditioning whisperer who brought Corey Kluber to town — polished off his career’s greatest highlight in 2019 when he led the Nationals to the World Series. In the NLCS, he hurled a seven-inning one-hitter against the Cardinals with 11Ks. His two World Series starts were less exceptional, until you remember his Game 7 appearance came after full-body back spasms that nearly knocked him out of competition.

But he persevered.

If the Yankees had known what was good for them, Scherzer would’ve joined Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran (yuck) in pinstripes and crafted his Hall of Fame legacy on likely World Series teams in 2017 and 2019 (and 2018?). Instead, the team can now pay for his final few years in the game — and continue to reap the rewards. Worth 2.2 WAR in just 12 starts last year, Scherzer seems poised to be a legend ’til the end.

Salvador Perez #13 of the Kansas City Royals (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Salvador Perez #13 of the Kansas City Royals (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

1. Salvador Perez

The Yankees might’ve seen the last of Gary Sanchez after 2021, in either direction.

Well, that’s not how you spell Gary Sanchez.

The Yankees’ established catcher has two years of control left in the Bronx, and the Bombers most recently tendered him a $6.35 million contract for 2021 — before Brian Cashman went on WFAN and made clear his displeasure with his lack of self-awareness and reaction to his benching.

If Sanchez tees off in ’21, don’t be surprised if the Yankees trade him and attempt to maximize the return before his free agent season, something I no longer anticipate they’ll pay for with Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres’ paydays still to come.

If Sanchez struggles? Well, then he couldn’t be more gone when it comes time to dole out raises next offseason.

Which brings me to Salvador Perez.

If the Yanks deal Sanchez or cut him loose, they will not be looking to massively downgrade at the position, handing the keys to a $1 million starter/backup hybrid like … say, Austin Romine. They’ll go somewhere in the middle, hoping to pay ~$10 million annually to a consistent performer, rather than $10 million-plus to Sanchez, which will soon become $18 million or so per year if he plays to his potential.

Enter Perez, still just 30 years old and likely available on a four-year, $50 million contract after ’21? Sound about right? He still offers power, socking 20+ home runs in each of his past four full seasons and ripping 11 with a .333 batting average in his comeback 2020 campaign.

If anything, the leader of the 2015 World Series champions remains underrated, and his power “peak” is only slightly lower than Sanchez’s, who hasn’t boomed in years.

Perez is a free-swinger with a low OBP. He’s also a Gold Glover.

Just think about it.

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